Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

6/ There was one quite big longshot in a House race, with Democrats winning WA-3 with <5% chances, but you’d expect 1 or 2 of these given 435 House races if a model is well-calibrated. https://t.co/cMgf1t7b3X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5/ There were *very* few major upsets in Senate or gubernatorial races. Katie Hobbs (AZ-GOV) was the closest and even she was only a 2:1 underdog. Hard to remember a year (OK, maybe 2012) where polling averages did so well in the most-watched contests. https://t.co/RI4Hncug2m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4/ And it was mostly because Democrats did a good job of translating votes to seats. The generic ballot average was spot-on. Short version: Ds came up big in swing states and districts because the GOP ran bad candidates. D turnout was so-so but indies voted Democrat in key races. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3/ Democrats did slightly better than expected based on polls/forecasts, but really only slightly, much less than the degree to which the GOP overperformed polls in 2016 & 2020. It was a somewhat surprising year relative to historical norms, but not relative to polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2/ Polls (in the aggregate) and forecasts had a good year. Polling averages did ~not~ predict a red wave. They showed a highly competitive race for the Senate and below-average (by historical standards) GOP gains in the House, though with much uncertainty. https://t.co/pPvR28VpUZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

🧵1/ Our biennial forecast self-review is out! There’s lots of detail in the story, please check it out. We think it’s really important to do this. It’s also one of those years where it may clear up some misconceptions. https://t.co/NKSpfSMD8j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! https://t.co/B7kzB9PJFK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, one issue with "The Market needs to freak out to force a debt ceiling compromise" is that it anthropomorphizes "The Market" into an individual actor who engages in strategic behavior when instead The Market is a collection of actors with wildly varying beliefs & incentives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 It is actually sort of a lowkey problem for the sports viewing experience! Although sometimes you can impress your friends by being like "I bet there's a touchdown or a turnover on this next play" because the odds go dark. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 Gotta use a sports betting app which I think actually sometimes leads reality by 15 seconds. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is one of my recent experiments with ChatGPT. If you ask it questions like this, the "person" sounds like a 9th grader in a creative writing seminar and the "AI" sounds almost stereotypically spectrum-y. https://t.co/V32isHQ3mm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I half-seriously/half-trollingly think NYC is the most underrated food city in America. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @Wertwhile In my lifetime ChatGPT is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of technologies that were extremely impressive right out the gate. Caveats...1) recency bias; 2) I'm choosing the word "impressive" carefully, other technologies might come to mind w/different adjectives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Manchin won by 3 in 2018 in a *very* good year for Democrats and WV continues to grow redder. He's an outlier and Republicans are more than capable of blowing winnable races. OTOH, he could retire. You'd clearly have a good bet on the GOP at 50:50 odds. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos’s Career Have In Common w/ @ameliatd, @NateSilver538 & @baseballot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kpelton @johnhollinger @JADubin5 @SethPartnow What's the theory behind this? Too many people on vacation in July? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've seen people propose versions this idea before but still retweeting because it seems important. Clearly the headlines that say "new variant is 50% more transmissable!" don't tell the whole story, otherwise we'd be up to an R0 of 30 or something by now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 @SethPartnow Yeah, the league could just go November thru July instead of mid-October thru June, which would also minimize conflict with other sports. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 @SethPartnow I mean that's probably the most money-making scenario if the players would agree! Personally I don't mind the B2B's from a competitive standpoint, as they tend to reward younger, deeper teams as opposed to older ones with 1-2 superstars who have plenty of advantages already. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow Maybe teams should offer refundable seats for certain opponents like airlines do. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NYCParks: It’s true—dolphins were spotted in the Bronx River this week! This is great news—it shows that the decades-long effort to res… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@StephenLevin33 Yeah, I think this is the single biggest substantive difference under Elon Twitter. Some of the predicted changes have not really come to fruition, but there's been a lot more anti-vax stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Are there more persuasive #MintTheCoin advocates than these guys? Because these responses are not very reassuring (and that's putting it *very* politely) especially later in the thread where one of them says it would be good if we defaulted since it would force change to SCOTUS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Absolutely not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of super elite events that seem like they'd be fun if a little bit cringe but who the hell wants to go to Switzerland to be on a bunch of panels in mid-January? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can assure you that two-thirds of voters have no fucking clue what "shadow banning" is because (unlike me, I guess) they have a life. Don't trust polls that force respondents to make a choice about obscure issues instead of providing a don't know/haven't heard enough option. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I still appreciate the attempt to report out the story but the net effect has been to somewhat improve my impression of previous Twitter management (from "pretty bad" to "meh"). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of the Twitter Files is like "SCOOP: person/group lobbied Twitter to inappropriately moderate content!" but then sort of buries the lede that Twitter usually didn't actually take the bait. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: .@NateSilver538 breaks down whether GOP investigations could impact Pres. Biden’s political standing ahead of 2024. “Inv… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol I think Dems are getting a payoff from being comparatively more moderate right now. And a lot of it is from people who have red lines with respect to GOP positions (on accepting election results, abortion, racial attitudes, Trump, etc.) even if they aren't thrilled with Ds. — PolitiTweet.org