Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 13, 2023

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Thu Feb 02 16:50:33 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5/ There were *very* few major upsets in Senate or gubernatorial races. Katie Hobbs (AZ-GOV) was the closest and even she was only a 2:1 underdog. Hard to remember a year (OK, maybe 2012) where polling averages did so well in the most-watched contests. https://t.co/RI4Hncug2m — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4/ And it was mostly because Democrats did a good job of translating votes to seats. The generic ballot average was spot-on. Short version: Ds came up big in swing states and districts because the GOP ran bad candidates. D turnout was so-so but indies voted Democrat in key races. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

6/ There was one quite big longshot in a House race, with Democrats winning WA-3 with <5% chances, but you’d expect 1 or 2 of these given 435 House races if a model is well-calibrated. https://t.co/cMgf1t7b3X — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023