Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 13, 2023

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Thu Feb 02 16:51:44 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

6/ There was one quite big longshot in a House race, with Democrats winning WA-3 with <5% chances, but you’d expect 1 or 2 of these given 435 House races if a model is well-calibrated. https://t.co/cMgf1t7b3X — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

5/ There were *very* few major upsets in Senate or gubernatorial races. Katie Hobbs (AZ-GOV) was the closest and even she was only a 2:1 underdog. Hard to remember a year (OK, maybe 2012) where polling averages did so well in the most-watched contests. https://t.co/RI4Hncug2m — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

7/ We don’t really plan to make major changes to how we aggregate/average polls because the process worked and produced quite accurate averages! Some pollsters (Trafalgar, Rasmussen) had a really bad year but averages that followed a rigorous process had a good year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023