Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 14, 2023

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Thu Feb 02 16:52:36 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

7/ We don’t really plan to make major changes to how we aggregate/average polls because the process worked and produced quite accurate averages! Some pollsters (Trafalgar, Rasmussen) had a really bad year but averages that followed a rigorous process had a good year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

6/ There was one quite big longshot in a House race, with Democrats winning WA-3 with <5% chances, but you’d expect 1 or 2 of these given 435 House races if a model is well-calibrated. https://t.co/cMgf1t7b3X — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

8) We ~already~ have a lot of defenses against pollsters “flooding the zone”. But of course, it’s hard to know in advance which polls will be most accurate. Some of the polls that did best in 2020 were worst in 2022. You need a lot of data and a long-term mindset. https://t.co/2NKnjsnibN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023