Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 14, 2023

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Thu Feb 02 16:53:56 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

8) We ~already~ have a lot of defenses against pollsters “flooding the zone”. But of course, it’s hard to know in advance which polls will be most accurate. Some of the polls that did best in 2020 were worst in 2022. You need a lot of data and a long-term mindset. https://t.co/2NKnjsnibN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

7/ We don’t really plan to make major changes to how we aggregate/average polls because the process worked and produced quite accurate averages! Some pollsters (Trafalgar, Rasmussen) had a really bad year but averages that followed a rigorous process had a good year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

9/ More generally, it’s usually a huge mistake to “fight the last war” in forecasting. Much news coverage (and even some data-driven shops) way overcompensated for 2016/2020 by treating "polls always underestimate Republicans" as the new normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023