Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 13, 2023

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Thu Feb 02 16:46:18 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2/ Polls (in the aggregate) and forecasts had a good year. Polling averages did ~not~ predict a red wave. They showed a highly competitive race for the Senate and below-average (by historical standards) GOP gains in the House, though with much uncertainty. https://t.co/pPvR28VpUZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

🧵1/ Our biennial forecast self-review is out! There’s lots of detail in the story, please check it out. We think it’s really important to do this. It’s also one of those years where it may clear up some misconceptions. https://t.co/NKSpfSMD8j — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3/ Democrats did slightly better than expected based on polls/forecasts, but really only slightly, much less than the degree to which the GOP overperformed polls in 2016 & 2020. It was a somewhat surprising year relative to historical norms, but not relative to polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023