Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 13, 2023

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Thu Feb 02 16:47:49 +0000 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3/ Democrats did slightly better than expected based on polls/forecasts, but really only slightly, much less than the degree to which the GOP overperformed polls in 2016 & 2020. It was a somewhat surprising year relative to historical norms, but not relative to polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2/ Polls (in the aggregate) and forecasts had a good year. Polling averages did ~not~ predict a red wave. They showed a highly competitive race for the Senate and below-average (by historical standards) GOP gains in the House, though with much uncertainty. https://t.co/pPvR28VpUZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

4/ And it was mostly because Democrats did a good job of translating votes to seats. The generic ballot average was spot-on. Short version: Ds came up big in swing states and districts because the GOP ran bad candidates. D turnout was so-so but indies voted Democrat in key races. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023