Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perry (a classic coal county) 100% in: Bevin (R) won it by 9% but our benchmarks said he prob needed to win it by 19%. So far Beshear (D) is impressing w/ his numbers in eastern KY and Cincinnati burbs. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bath Co. 100% in: Beshear (D) needed to win it by 1% per our benchmarks, and he won it by 6%. There are some interesting cross-currents right now. #KYGOV looks like it could take a while to call... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finally, some good news for Beshear (D) out of eastern KY: Morgan Co. fully reporting, our benchmarks said Bevin (R) needed to win it by 15%, he won it by just 5%. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meade Co. now 100% reporting: Bevin (R) needed to win it by 5%, and he won it by 9%. Another good sign for him. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

OTOH in the Cincinnati suburbs, Bevin (R) currently leading in Boone Co. by 17.8% w/ 60% reporting. My benchmarks say he probably needs to win by 20% there. Still a lot of precincts out there. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Third complete county: Robertson. Bevin (R) needed to win it by 13%, and he won it by 14%. Just above pace there. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Second complete county: Menifee. Bevin (R) wins it by 7%, my benchmarks said he needed to win it by ~2%. Still extremely early, but good news for Bevin. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First complete county: Nicholas. Beshear (D) wins it by 1%, but my benchmarks said he prob needed to win it by 4% to win. Still extremely early. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

With 80% of Taylor Co. reporting, Bevin leads there by 25%. Beshear (D) prob needs to ultimately keep it within 20% there to win, but there are other counties where he's hitting his benchmarks so far. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Too early to say anything definitive but looks like a very close race so far based on the highest-reporting rural counties. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Back of envelope, Beshear (D) could need something like 68% in Jefferson Co. (Louisville) & 65% in Fayette Co. (Lexington) just to break even statewide. We'll see. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just as Sen. Joe Manchin (D) won reelection to #WVSEN in 2018 by winning the Charleston suburbs and losing Mingo Co. (once unthinkable), Andy Beshear (D) probably needs historic Dem margins in urban/suburban KY if he has any chance of winning #KYGOV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

5. Dems entering "Blue Tsunami" territory if they: Win #KYGOV & #MSGov Win VA Sen. w/ 25+ seats by adding: #SD11 (Chase) and/or #SD17 (Reeves) Win VA House of Dels. w/ 57+ by adding any of: #HD27 (Robinson), #HD30 (Freitas), #HD62 OPEN (Ingram), #HD84 (Davis), #HD100 (Bloxom) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

4. Dems having a better-than-expected night if they: Win #KYGOV Lose #MSGov Win VA Senate 24-16 by adding: #SD08 (DeSteph) Win VA House of Dels. 56-44 by adding: #HD28 OPEN (Thomas), #HD66 (Cox), #HD83 (Stolle) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

3. Dems having a good (but not terrific) night if they: Lose #KYGOV & #MSGov Win VA Senate 23-17 by adding: #SD07 OPEN (Wagner), #SD12 (Dunnavant) Win VA House of Dels. 53-47 by adding: #HD42 (Hugo), #HD76 (Jones) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

2. Dems having a weaker-than-expected night if they: Lose #KYGOV & #MSGOV Win VA Senate 21-19 by adding: #SD10 (Sturtevant) Win VA House of Dels. 51-49 by flipping #HD91 OPEN (Helsel), #HD94 (Yancey) but nothing else — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

THREAD on races to watch & how to roughly interpret tonight's results: 1. Dems are having a bad/terrible night if they: lose #KYGOV, #MSGOV, fail to take over the VA House of Dels. and only muster a 20-20 tie in VA Senate by picking up #SD13 (unlikely) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm not going to pretend I've followed this year's #VALEG elections anywhere as close to @ChazNuttycombe. If you're tracking the results, he's a must-follow. That said, I do have some thoughts on races to watch & how to interpret tonight's results... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn *15% "potentially" persuadable, 9% "truly" persuadable, per @Nate_Cohn assessment. No matter how you slice it, still far more consequential than both parties' efforts to drive "base" turnout given these votes are worth 2x as much. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, the NYT/Siena finding that 15% of voters in key states are genuinely persuadable should remind everyone to beware pundits who claim "there aren't any swing voters left, it's 100% about turnout now," which is criminally false. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A common thread (at least for now) w/ the persuadable voters who will decide 2020, per NYT/Siena data: Warren’s lack of appeal. https://t.co/2JrazKITvl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting @Alex_Roarty piece on rural voters in which Scott Walker says the biggest threat to Trump in rural WI would be...Sanders. https://t.co/mN7Opw3Ws0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fwiw I may or may not have let Izzy write in her name for several offices... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tfw you show up to vote, the only things on the ballot are three uncontested races and you’re wondering what you’re doing here. #2019 https://t.co/e0RoglbaCd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yet another reason Dems could add a worthless 1 million+ votes to Hillary Clinton's 4.3 million vote margin in CA: https://t.co/5PoJyfT2zu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another reason Dems shouldn't extrapolate 2018 into 2020: by my math, there were roughly *52 million* eligible non-college whites who didn't vote in 2018 vs. only 13.7 million eligible college whites who didn't vote. There's plenty of upside for Trump, esp. in Upper Midwest. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another reason Dems shouldn't extrapolate 2018 into 2020: by my math, there were roughly *52 million* eligible non-college whites who didn't vote in 2018 vs. only 13.7 million eligible college whites who didn't vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The good news for Dems: non-college whites will be a slightly lower % of eligible voters in '20 vs. '16. Here was the change from '16 to '18, per my analysis of Census data (in millions): Non-college whites: 105.3➡️102.4 College whites: 49.2➡️52.3 Non-whites: 69.6➡️73.9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

OTOH, my best estimate is that there were 32.9 million eligible *non-whites* who didn't vote in 2016. But they're disproportionately concentrated in states like CA, NY, TX, etc. - not the Upper Midwest. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My best estimate (based on Census turnout data) is that nationally, there were 44.4 million eligible non-college whites who didn't vote in 2016, vs. only 9.3 million eligible college whites who didn't vote. Certainly room for improvement for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org