Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's Marist's breakdown of college/non-college whites in '18 likely voter pools (vs. Census/CPS-based estimates): AZ: 34/32 (32/41) FL: 30/33 (27/40) IN: 37/47 (31/55) MN: 41/45 (39/50) MO: 38/47 (32/52) TN: 32/45 (32/50) WI: 39/48 (34/57) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's one thing these surveys had in common? In all seven cases, non-college whites were seriously under-sampled relative to their share of the actual electorate based on estimates using Census/CPS data compiled after the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, we should note that Marist's Oct/Nov 2018 polls were fairly precise even if there was a chronic pro-D *inaccuracy:* MO: McCaskill +3 (actual result -6) IN: Donnelly +3 (-6) AZ: Sinema +6 (+2) FL: Nelson +4 (-0.2) TN: Bredesen -5 (-11) MN: Walz +17 (+12) WI: Evers +10 (+1) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I applaud Marist for indeed being one of the most transparent pollsters out there when it comes to its sampling. It also allows us, like Marist, to study what might have led to a chronic pro-D bias in Oct/Nov 2018 polls... 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A rural white college+ voter is likelier to vote R than a (sub)urban one. So weight by setting, by all means. But a rural white college+ voter is also likelier to vote D than a rural non-college white voter. Weighting by urban/rural doesn’t obviate need to weight by education. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: This piece/study does not contest--and appears to concede--that education is correlated with both vote choice and nonrespons… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @gelliottmorris: I talked to several Midwestern pollsters yesterday who all said the same thing: If a variable is significantly correlat… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeeMiringoff @maristpoll @Nate_Cohn You mention that education weighting didn’t fix 2018 misses. But big difference between weighting by education and weighting *whites* by education. Which are you referring to? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @LeeMiringoff: @Redistrict @maristpoll @Nate_Cohn Just one more, here is a link to the full report. https://t.co/ev8kiC2uIe — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeeMiringoff @maristpoll @Nate_Cohn Income not nearly as correlated w/ vote as college, if you compare actual election results & Census data down to precinct level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Awful. I don't plan on putting much stock into @maristpoll state results moving forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a state-level polling atrocity by @maristpoll after what happened in 2016, for all the reasons @Nate_Cohn laid out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn I read the story as Marist attempting to justify weighting by urban/suburban/rural *in addition* to education. If Marist isn’t weighting by education (which never crossed my mind), that’s...really bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/fKdS6K5k3B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: 🚨🚨 New @CookPolitical Senate ratings and overview 🚨🚨 Almost 100 days out, Democrats are favored to take back the Senat… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Idk, maybe b/c they are Rasmussen? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Right. And yes, I acknowledge there are valid methodological concerns about comparing CCES data to live interview polls that I should have noted. I would point out your analysis in June showed a 12 point anti-Trump margin shift among seniors (vs. a 5 point shift overall). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Out of curiosity, what are your final '16 pre-election live interview polls averages by race/education and age? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Out of curiosity, what are your final '16 pre-election polls live interview averages by race/education and age? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My latest for @NBCNews: meet the two demographic groups w/ big Trump defections since 2016. https://t.co/5Mo3bpHP4C — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@posglen @aedwardslevy @JessicaTaylor I've seen enough to take down my patio umbrella — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big difference from 2016: in this poll, Trump leads TX's college+ whites 49-42. In 2016, by my estimates, Trump carried them 61-33. This is a massive suburban defection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New TX @QuinnipiacPoll: Biden 45, Trump 44 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One divide that stands out to me from latest ABC/WaPo poll: "Would you prefer to vote...by mail or in person?" College+ whites: 51%-47% mail Non-college whites: 66%-31% in person Black: 60%-36% in person Hispanic: 60%-37% in person — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 1986, the race for #GA05 was a brutal, protracted primary/runoff between civil rights icons John Lewis (D) and Julian Bond (D). In 2020, it's an all-virtual affair at warp speed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Election Day can’t come soon enough for Dems... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Yamiche: Awful, awful news: Civil Rights Icon Rep John Lewis has died. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I stand by this call from 23 days ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: A strong interview with @davidshor here, much of which I agree with. One thing I'd flag and reiterate is that the Lafayette… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hot off the press, our new @CookPolitical House ratings w/ 20 changes. Updated seat count: 221 Solid/Likely/Lean D 189 Solid/Likely/Lean R 25 Toss Ups https://t.co/StuidXmxtc — PolitiTweet.org