Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It boils down to this: Markey's strong w/ college graduates, while the Kennedy brand has historically been strongest w/ working-class Catholics. And today's MA Dem primary electorate is light years more college+ and less religious than it used to be. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Taniel overall state numbers — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, for anyone who might doubt this phenomenon of Trump-voting Dems, look no further than Robeson Co., which Trump carried 51%-47% in '16. Dems still hold a 57%-14% (!) registration lead there, down from 68%-12% at this point in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The better news for Dems is that NC's non-white share continues to increase, driven by Latinos and those who list race as "other." Still, registration trends aren't going to give us strong insights as to who will win NC, or any state, in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As we've seen in other states like FL/PA, North Carolina's Dem registration lead has shrunk. But that's mostly thanks to the shrinking numbers of white conservatives who still affiliate as Dems, many of whom voted for Trump in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NC's net voter registrations are up 3.3% so far this year, not far off the 3.6% growth at this point in 2016. August '16: 40% D, 30% R, 30% Unaffiliated/Other 70% White, 22% Black, 8% Other August '20: 36% D, 30% R, 34% Unaffiliated/Other 66% White, 21% Black, 13% Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Biden's at only 55-60% to win in prediction markets, but 85-90% in other statistical models, which seems like an insanel… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, there's no guarantee that these white, non-college non-voters would support Trump at nearly the same rate as their peers who voted in '16. But this is precisely why there's no guarantee sky-high turnout will benefit Biden, particularly in the Midwestern battlegrounds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my estimate, in '16 non-college whites made up 50% of the nation's non-voters (vs. 44% of voters), including: 76% in Iowa 74% in Maine 71% in New Hampshire 68% in Ohio 66% in Pennsylvania 64% in Minnesota 63% in Wisconsin 62% in Michigan 54% in North Carolina — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's clear where Trump sees opportunity to offset erosion in support since '16: amping up turnout among his base - non-college whites. And by my math, non-college whites were a disproportionate share of '16 *non-voters* in all '20 battlegrounds except AZ and TX. https://t.co/1JB3uDPi2l — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@billscher https://t.co/rjbdMmd8A1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections @gelliottmorris that's all fair — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But I do know a few modelers who insist Biden has a 90%+ chance of winning... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That's why over the next few weeks, I'll be watching to see if Biden goes straight to camera w/ an ad that forcefully pre-empts/debunks Trump's "defund the police" attack before pivoting to Trump's failures on other issues, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Basically, Biden's prospects in MI/PA/WI boil down to his ability to hang onto voters like this one - and it's a somewhat fragile relationship (via @reidepstein's story a few weeks back). https://t.co/D0GV2ckudy — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Basically, Biden's prospects in MI/PA/WI boil down to his ability to hang on to voters like this one in his column - and it's a somewhat fragile relationship (via @reidepstein's article a few weeks back). https://t.co/DEMJHF6R8E — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my estimates, there were 1.2 million eligible college whites in MI/PA/WI who didn't vote in 2016, and 1.6 million eligible non-whites who didn't vote. In other words, Biden's untapped voter pool in those states (~2.8 million) is a lot smaller than Trump's (~4.8 million). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's not about improving his overall numbers. It's about base activation/turnout. By my estimates, in 2016 there were *4.8 million* eligible non-college whites across MI, PA and WI who didn't vote. In 2016, Trump won those states by a combined 77,744 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. some of the recent 2016-like polling we've been seeing in core battleground states (AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI) is exactly why Biden been smart to resist temptation to divert ad $$ to "reach" states (GA/IA/OH/TX), while Trump's spending in the latter has been misguided. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @geoffreyvs: How is the Electoral College map changing? With @elena___mejia’s beautiful charts, we run through the states that have swun… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More evidence of a slight homecoming of non-college whites to Trump? Electoral College tipping point states narrowing a bit more than national vote in the past month’s polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And by "confront," I don't mean Biden denouncing rioting, which he's done repeatedly. I mean running actual ads directly confronting Trump's "defund the police" attacks, which Dems tend to roll their eyes at but are potentially effective w/ certain low-info voters Trump needs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kenosha imagery is already on its way to Trump ads warning voters that the riots/"mob rule" in Portland, Seattle and Minneapolis are heading for small-town MI/PA/WI/etc. Trump is far better off talking about this than COVID. And Biden is going to need to confront it head on. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The RNC's approach to COVID-19 so far strikes me as pretty much the same as the president's up to this point: acknowledge it as little as possible in hopes voters forget about it by November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As much time as Dems devoted to speakers who didn't reflect the party's traditional coalition, the RNC is devoting even more time to speakers who don't fit the GOP stereotype. The problem: its message is still really base-oriented and all but ignores voters' top issue. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's one thing to come to terms w/ a lack of repercussions for stomping all over the Hatch Act. It's another to contemplate all the other guardrails that don't exist anymore thanks to a delegitimized media/Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Stephanie Bice (R) defeats Terry Neese (R) in #OK05 GOP runoff for the right to face freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, Dems' biggest 2021 prize might once again be Illinois, where they could turn a 13D-5R delegation into an even more lopsided 14D-3R map by adding East St. Louis to #IL13 and eliminating Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s #IL16. https://t.co/RSZ9xwTg7j — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, if you think the 12R-4D GOP gerrymander of Ohio in 2011 was aggressive, just wait for 2021, when Republicans could potentially draw a 13R-2D map despite reforms passed by voters (as @RRHElections suggested a few months ago) https://t.co/8Qt2reGoy7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To stay entertained when I zone out during DNC/RNC, I've been taking the stellar new 2020 @davesredist app for a spin. It's hands-down the best tool out there for average junkies to explore 2021 remap possibilities. Hats off to its creator, Dave Bradlee. https://t.co/tLA5Wq9TCc — PolitiTweet.org