Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania, 49 to 40 percent among likely voters, in a new Times/Siena poll https://t.co/86O9lsPzjG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@kevin_cracknell @Nate_Cohn In your view, what explains Biden's impressive jump to 22% (vs. Clinton's 16.6% in Potter in '16) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You found a Biden voter in Potter Co.? Wow — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@joelgoldstein75 @AdamBassWCCS I’ve seen enough: accurate — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In conversations w/ Dem campaign folks past few weeks, their biggest challenge now is identifying effective late uses for all the $$. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Updated rough personal rankings of the most flippable Trump '16 turf for Biden: 1. #NE02 2. Michigan 3. Arizona 4. Wisconsin 5. Pennsylvania 6. Florida 7. #ME02 8. North Carolina 9. Georgia 10. Iowa 11. Ohio 12. Texas — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@kkondik Totally agree that newspaper endorsements can still be valuable for lower-level offices that don't get a lot of news/TV coverage. But at the presidential level, it just strikes most voters as media taking the mask off. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AdamBassWCCS lol i'm not even sure what this is in response to — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I had to guess whether Biden wins a higher % in #NE02 (which Trump won in '16) or MN (which Clinton won), I'd still lean #NE02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: as someone who used to be responsible for endorsements (long time ago), I think they probably are more valuable (to readers) t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You’d think four years after daily newspaper endorsements ran 12-to-1 for the losing side, there’d be some reflection on why voters’ faith in the objectivity of major news institutions is at/near historic lows. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now let’s see if the NYT lets its reporting speak for itself instead of delegitimizing itself by telling voters who to vote for. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NE02 is by far the most urban prize Trump carried in ‘16 (AZ being a close second). The difference between those and MI/PA/WI/OH/IA - there just aren’t rural areas for Trump to grow to offset suburban losses. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Between this and private surveys, I don’t really view #NE02’s lone Electoral vote as competitive. It’s Biden’s. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Biden leads Trump in Nebraska's Second District, 48 to 41, according to new NYT/Siena poll https://t.co/WZp6oBmppm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is Ohio highly competitive? Yes. Is there any plausible scenario where it's at the Electoral College tipping point? Still no. https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/DOg9hE3bMD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@davidgoldiner earth to readers: read more carefully — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this rate, there’s still time for 5-7 more major bombshells to not upend the race between now and November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeeMiringoff @maristpoll Your data shows the opposite of what you're saying: the likeliest voters in your poll are college+ whites. If turnout goes up, there's far more room for turnout growth among non-college whites. In 2016, 872k eligible WI non-college whites didn't vote vs. 182k college+ whites. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeeMiringoff The well-documented problem is that the '16 exits were way too college-heavy. Census data yields a '16 WI electorate that was 59.7% non-college white. Adjusting for population change since '16 yields ~57%. But if turnout goes up in '20 (a good bet), NCW % likely goes up too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This underscores the urgency for Trump of getting much closer to his '16 numbers among non-college whites. Even if you crank up their turnout to 100%, his current weaker standing w/ them vs. Biden just won't cut it. For Biden, it's all about just holding the line. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, in the above map, I'm assuming every demographic group sees a 5 point turnout bump vs. '16, but being extra-generous to Trump by assuming a 10 point bump in non-college white turnout. Even so: Biden 375, Trump 163. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As you might glean, it's not *that* far off from what state polls are showing! The notable exceptions might be: 1) FL, where Trump's gains w/ Hispanics have outpaced his national gains 2) GA, where non-college white voters are less elastic than they are in Upper Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you were only to go by September's live-interview national polls (averaging demographic crosstabs, ignoring state polls), here's how that might roughly translate in the Electoral College: https://t.co/TkXkxY9Lxb https://t.co/bfpIOIAbK7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Among Hispanic voters, Biden's average lead so far in Sept. is 60%-32%, up from 56%-31% in Aug. (Clinton led 61%-23% in final 2016 polls). Not surprisingly, Trump's gains in past month have been concentrated among whites. Race looking more racially polarized as Nov. approaches. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A positive sign for Biden: among Black voters, he leads 87%-7% so far in the average crosstabs of September's live-interview polls. That's up from 83%-9% in August polls (Clinton led 83%-5% in 2016's final pre-election polls). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beware polls that aren't weighted by education. A new WI survey showing Biden up by more than others has a sample that's 52% non-college whites. In reality, non-college whites are poised to be at least 57% of all WI voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BruneElections: A bit misleading. 95% of total Ohio ballots should be counted on election night. Democrats will likely gain ~1% after f… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mattyglesias: As deliberately simplistic as it is, something like @Redistrict’s heuristic of “does this county have a Whole Foods in it… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@grace_panetta The 2022 House map is nonexistent AF — PolitiTweet.org