Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 6, 2021

Created

Mon Sep 28 00:30:42 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This underscores the urgency for Trump of getting much closer to his '16 numbers among non-college whites. Even if you crank up their turnout to 100%, his current weaker standing w/ them vs. Biden just won't cut it. For Biden, it's all about just holding the line. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, in the above map, I'm assuming every demographic group sees a 5 point turnout bump vs. '16, but being extra-generous to Trump by assuming a 10 point bump in non-college white turnout. Even so: Biden 375, Trump 163. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeeMiringoff The well-documented problem is that the '16 exits were way too college-heavy. Census data yields a '16 WI electorate that was 59.7% non-college white. Adjusting for population change since '16 yields ~57%. But if turnout goes up in '20 (a good bet), NCW % likely goes up too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2020 Hibernated