Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Joe Biden leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by a significant margin, according to new Times/Siena polls. Biden leads Trump by… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

With few exceptions, anything touching Gwinnett Co., GA might be cursed for Rs this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Enjoyed nerding out about the latest polling/trends in key battlegrounds on @TheRecount. Catch the episode here: https://t.co/gFiAmN0gdZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NilesGApol Thank god I stick to the data and avoid punditry — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hahnalytics There were actually 7,700 Black registrants in Peach County, GA in 2018, up from 6,500 in 2008. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's undeniably a factor, but probably explains a minority of the decline. Take turnout of Black registered voters in Peach County, GA (per state's file), and the county-wide result: 2008: 77%, Obama +6.7% 2012: 73%, Obama +7.5% 2016: 54%, Trump +2.9% 2018: 50%, Kemp +4.5% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another area of a "reach" state for Biden that fits this description: southern Georgia, where rural Black turnout plummeted between '12 and '16 and didn't quite recover in '18, even w/ Abrams running. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although I'd be surprised to see Biden/Harris divert their schedules from AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI in the closing weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if they dispatched Obama to the Rio Grande Valley - a traditionally Dem zone where Beto/Biden have struggled to match Obama's appeal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But the real question: do Biden/Harris hit the RGV before 11/3? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: NEW: Republicans have closed the Democratic voter registration advantage in PA by almost 200k since 2016. As Trump he… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Re-upping b/c the pile-on is deserved in this case. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BGrueskin: A small South Dakota town put the Confederate flag on its police cars and uniforms in 2009. Now, a Black man who's lived t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CyndyMonty65 @CookPolitical @DrCameronWebb It's not, it's in Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI from @CookPolitical's new House overview: Dems poised to expand their majority, perhaps by 5-15 seats, as GOP races to avert a Trump-driven catastrophe. https://t.co/9HvHFZ6iU6 https://t.co/GRmIZsdvAi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: I'd imagine you can also pour a ton of money into direct voter contact/education and try to ensure that as few voters a… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/GroNHDBb9G — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectionBabe But few other counties in FL that will 1) give us a clear look at the extent to which Trump's erosion w/ seniors is real and 2) report such an insanely overwhelming percentage of their ballots up front. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @tmgm528: @Redistrict @clairecmc Smartest move in the game https://t.co/9uxRICkl7c — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What do you do as a Dem w/ $86 million in SC? It's pretty obvious: you pull a @clairecmc and try to lower your threshold for victory to ~48%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Long before COVID-19 or the economic collapse that followed in its wake, Pres. Trump gambled his re-election prospects on t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn well there's a good chance we'll have that data in hand by 11/1 (and the registration data much sooner), so perhaps we can revisit this conversation then — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even at the height of Clinton's lead after Access Hollywood, she was up just 6.9% at @FiveThirtyEight: 45.8% to 38.9%. That's a pretty far cry from 52.2%. Clinton's 2016 lead just isn't in the same ballpark as Biden's today. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%. But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ElectProject: Really cautious that another *very* plausible explanation for the early voting patterns we're seeing is that Trump suppor… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I’d set the over/under at 90 points — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @DanFosterType: Clinton took DC 93 to 4, actually. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Enormous voting mode gap in new ABC/WaPo poll: Early in-person/mail (58%): Biden 70%-26% Election Day (40%): Trump 64%-32% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JTHVerhovek: NEW @ABC/@washingtonpost national poll (Likely voters, MoE 4%) Biden: 54% (+12) Trump: 42% Among men Biden: 48% Trump: 4… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TX voters will have a plethora of locations for in-person early voting starting 10/13. Keep in mind: the absentee share is minuscule vs. most other states b/c of TX’s strict eligibility rules. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, I can’t confirm the GOP reaction described. Quite a bit of polling denial happening these days, don’t see what would change that. — PolitiTweet.org