Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It's undeniably a factor, but probably explains a minority of the decline. Take turnout of Black registered voters in Peach County, GA (per state's file), and the county-wide result: 2008: 77%, Obama +6.7% 2012: 73%, Obama +7.5% 2016: 54%, Trump +2.9% 2018: 50%, Kemp +4.5% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@Redistrict fwiw i think pop decline is a big factor