Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, post-Dobbs special elections have seen huge swings towards Dems thanks to highly-engaged college grads dominating low-turnout races. But it's dangerous to extrapolate these results to November. https://t.co/48kRnpVjVo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: a deep dive on why we've downgraded our outlook for GOP gains from 20-35 seats to 10-20 seats. https://t.co/YzK7FOpFmt https://t.co/kJiN5kjjFB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Alaska count: Mary Peltola (D) expands lead over Sarah Palin (R) to 16,347 votes. Depending on how many ballots “exhaust,” Palin probably needs 68-70% of Begich second place votes to prevail. It’s going to be close. #AKAL https://t.co/5NDTB6lo2U — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: An “in party” trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the party out of power has rarely suc… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We won’t change the rating of the race because voting ended more than a week ago, but if I were forced to describe the outlook now, I’d have a hard time seeing it as anything other than a Toss Up. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans are staring at a potential nightmare scenario here, and Begich has Al Gross to thank for costing him the race. Had Gross stayed in and split Dem votes w/ Peltola, Palin/Begich would have finished first/second and Dem ballots would have put Begich over the top. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, Palin now has to squeeze a 14.5k vote margin out of Begich’s 50k votes to win the final ranked-choice round. That may not happen if enough of Begich’s voters a) didn’t rank a second choice or b) dislike Palin so much they ranked Peltola second. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CoryMcCartan: Clear & engaging write-up of recent progress in redistricting analysis. So glad to have been able to do research in this… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The November race between Josh Riley (D) and Marc Molinaro (R) in the new #NY19 remains in our Toss Up column. https://t.co/fJqu7goxRk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical rating change: following Pat Ryan's (D) special election win, #NY18 moves from Toss Up to Lean D for the fall. Ryan now has the luxury of running as the incumbent in a new, bluer seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In May, @CookPolitical's House outlook was a GOP gain of 20-35 seats. Based on recent developments, we've revised our outlook to a 10-20 seat GOP gain, w/ Dems maintaining control not out of the question. https://t.co/cMClxLGBjT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast: NJ: 58% VA: 74% This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate. Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast: #CA22: 37% #TX34: 14% #NE01: 38% #MN01: 32% #NY19: 36% #NY23: 23% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

House special election results since start of June: #CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24 #TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5 ------(Dobbs)------- #NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5 #MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4 #NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2 #NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The even better news for Dems tonight is that Mary Peltola's (D) lead over Sarah Palin (R) in the #AKAL special election just stretched to over 13k votes, giving Peltola a better chance of winning when Nick Begich's (R) second-choice votes are tabulated next week. https://t.co/zMzjUqBri8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If not for a devastating string of legal defeats towards the end of redistricting (esp. FL, NY, OH), Dems might have a good shot to hold the House. As it stands, still believe Rs are clear favorites in a higher-turnout scenario, which November will be. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lots of focus on Dems being more engaged/energetic post-Dobbs, which is undeniably true. But to me, the GOP/Trump base appears less engaged than it was last November, which is just as big a part of the story. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Pat Ryan (D) defeats Marc Molinaro (R) in the #NY19 special election. This is a huge victory for Dems in a bellwether, Biden +1.5 district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fake account, @TwitterSupport pls remove. https://t.co/ZRPOXVEijj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Joe Sempolinski (R) defeats Max Della Pia (D) in the #NY23 special election. @CookPolitical rated this seat Solid R, so no surprise here, but final margin worth watching. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's a reason I'm staying mum on NY specials tonight. So far, results look about on par w/ 2020-type enviro (good news for Dems), but lots of uncertainty about how much vote is left in each county. #NY19 #NY23 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) defeats state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D) in the #NY17 Dem primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The vaunted "Battle of Central Park" isn't turning out to be much of one, as Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) is currently demolishing Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) by 31 pts in #NY12. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beware the "blue mirage" in NY, in which lopsidedly pro-Dem absentee votes reported now will be offset by much redder EDay votes tallied later. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Rep. Dan Webster (R) defeats alt-right activist Laura Loomer (R) in the #FL11 GOP primary. But the final margin - single digits - will be a lot closer than House GOP leaders bargained for. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) defeats Mark Lombardo (R) in the #FL01 GOP primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Laurel Lee (R) wins the #FL15 GOP primary and will face Alan Cohn (D) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, Jared Moskowitz (D) wins the #FL23 Dem primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ted Deutch (D). @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Cory Mills (R) defeats state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R) in the #FL07 GOP primary. House GOP leaders breathe another sigh of relief. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Trump-endorsed Anna Paulina Luna (R) defeats Kevin Hayslett (R) in the #FL13 GOP primary. @CookPolitical November rating: Likely R. — PolitiTweet.org