Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2022

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Wed Aug 24 06:12:32 +0000 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast: NJ: 58% VA: 74% This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 24, 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate. Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast: #CA22: 37% #TX34: 14% #NE01: 38% #MN01: 32% #NY19: 36% #NY23: 23% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 24, 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In May, @CookPolitical's House outlook was a GOP gain of 20-35 seats. Based on recent developments, we've revised our outlook to a 10-20 seat GOP gain, w/ Dems maintaining control not out of the question. https://t.co/cMClxLGBjT — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 24, 2022