Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's 2016 margin was 1.2 points in FL, 3.7 in NC, 5.1 in GA and 9 in TX. But the rate at which each has shifted towards Dems *since* 2016 has arguably been roughly proportional to Trump's margin, and it's plausible all four are in a similar toss up range. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Been wanting to say this for a while, but the "Florida/Georgia line" is getting pretty thin in polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My pick for a sleeper House race neither party is spending $$ on: #NC09, which everyone forgot about after the fraud drama of 2018/2019. But the district was redrawn to be slightly *bluer* since Dan Bishop (R) won it by 2 point last Sept., and there's been zero public polling. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The president's decision to downplay the severity of COVID at multiple late October rallies in Wisconsin might be the biggest display of tone-deafness I've ever seen, and I cover hundreds of campaigns a cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: if we hear any news anchor/pundit say that Trump appears to be doing "surprisingly well" in MI/PA/WI based on E-Day votes alone or that Biden is doing "amazingly" in FL/NC/TX based on early votes, they should be fired on the spot for gross negligence. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We can't know what the results will be now, but we do know that the partisan breakdown of early vs. E-Day ballots will be more lopsided than ever before. The more voters know to expect it, the less effective bad actors' attempts at disinformation will be on 11/3 & beyond. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We can't know what the results will be now, but we do know that the partisan breakdown of early vs. E-Day ballots will be more lopsided than ever before. The more voters know to expect it, the less effective bad actors' attempts at disinformation will be on 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is precisely the time news outlets should begin preparing viewers for a possible "red mirage" of results in the north (MI/PA/WI) and a "blue mirage" in the southeast (FL/GA/TX) early on Election Night. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What a few people seem to have a hard time understanding is that a world in which FL/NC are close can also be a world in which GA/TX are also very close, while Biden still has a clear edge in all the states he needs for 270 (AZ/MI/PA/WI). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Half of the reporters who call for comment... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An important point on why polls w/ Hispanic-only samples might be more favorable for Biden/Dems than crosstabs of national/state polls w/ self-ID'd Hispanic voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Fort Bend, Collin and Comal counties in TX just became the 4th, 5th and 6th counties in the U.S., to my knowledge, to surpass their 2016 *total* votes counted (as with Hays, Denton and Williamson, TX, population growth since '16 is a big factor here). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: In our poll (the one that shows Trump+4), these folks do lean Republican by voter file based measures of partisanship, but t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Joe Biden leads in Nevada, according to the final Times/Siena survey of the state. Biden 49, Trump 43 https://t.co/tazhwMwSM1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FL's early vote data tells us virtually nothing about the vote preferences of the final electorate. We do have plenty of other evidence, however, that the state will be close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New for @NBCNews: here's why I stand by my bet that Biden will win a higher share of the vote in Arizona than Wisconsin, and why he's likelier to break through in Texas than Ohio. https://t.co/gvMGqTFGGL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looks like we might have to keep waiting for PA results... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd like to "sound the alarm" on Joe Biden: he's likely to win next week's presidential election. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wisdom from @CharlieCookDC: https://t.co/iCxYYkbPPk? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A terrific look at what's at stake on the ballot for 2021 redistricting by @baseballot and @elena___mejia. https://t.co/MCJ9BHpYcX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let's see...what should we put more faith in? 1) A molehill of state-level online polls from attention-seeking, off-brand pollsters? Or... 2) A mountain of district-level polls from established pollsters tasked w/ helping their parties make smart resource allocation decisions — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@chrislhayes yes...for example, #MI03 around Grand Rapids might be the most Trump-defecting place in Michigan right now — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, there are parts of MI/PA, i.e. Detroit/Philly, where Trump was in the single digits in '16 and has little room to fall. So a 10 point swing against Trump in a suburban seat (#MI03, #PA01, etc.) actually *aligns* with a 7-8 point swing against Trump statewide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen a few hot takes that district-level polls are "even worse" for Trump than state/national polls. Tbh, I think that's a bit of an illusion. Why? A disproportionate share of defection from Trump since '16 has taken place in the competitive districts that are being polled. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How do we know Trump isn't getting anywhere near his '16 margins in MI, PA, etc.? Follow the money. Even *Republican* groups are seeing/releasing surveys showing Trump slipping badly in key MI/PA districts, and making spending decisions accordingly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Four years ago, these district-level polls showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in heavily white working-class districts (see below), but many people overlooked them. https://t.co/Da2hFcEhIJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The truth is, the majority of presidential race polling is conducted at the *district,* not state or national level. Most of it is never made public by parties/PACs, but is of high quality b/c it's conducted to make critical resource allocation decisions in House races. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tfw you've been devouring hundreds of district-level polls for decades and everyone has suddenly woken up to how instructive they can be. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Disclaimer: just b/c I'm a political stats guy doesn't mean I know anything about baseball... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A great read on the complexities of TX's Hispanic vote (h/t @amyewalter). https://t.co/cMMi7nbAxm — PolitiTweet.org