Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 10, 2022

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Tue Oct 27 02:42:52 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen a few hot takes that district-level polls are "even worse" for Trump than state/national polls. Tbh, I think that's a bit of an illusion. Why? A disproportionate share of defection from Trump since '16 has taken place in the competitive districts that are being polled. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How do we know Trump isn't getting anywhere near his '16 margins in MI, PA, etc.? Follow the money. Even *Republican* groups are seeing/releasing surveys showing Trump slipping badly in key MI/PA districts, and making spending decisions accordingly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, there are parts of MI/PA, i.e. Detroit/Philly, where Trump was in the single digits in '16 and has little room to fall. So a 10 point swing against Trump in a suburban seat (#MI03, #PA01, etc.) actually *aligns* with a 7-8 point swing against Trump statewide. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 27, 2020 Hibernated