Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by... 3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs 4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02 wins ~290 EVs 8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX, wins 305-388 EVs 10% or more: adds IA/OH/#ME02, wins 413 EVs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@MikeDelMoro @Morning_Joe https://t.co/rrx2ihpwZG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh wouldn't be shocked by any of the 16 possible win/loss combinations in FL/GA/NC/TX (although it's more likely the states fall mostly in one direction than split down the middle). It's a big reason why the line between ~290 and ~400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

p.s. Willie didn't ask about Nebraska or Maine, but would have said Biden will win #NE02 comfortably and probably would have tipped #ME02 ever-so-slightly to Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @persily: Very impressive paper here relevant to research on polarization and media consumption. https://t.co/WwSd8h5EtR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just revealed my Electoral Map w/ @WillieGeist on @Morning_Joe. Pretty sure that jinxes any chance of it happening (j/k). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MonmouthPoll: PENNSYLVANIA VOTER POLL: Presidential election Likely voters, high turnout: 51% @JoeBiden 44% @realDonaldTrump Likely v… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Trump does hang onto FL by a thread, I'm not going to say this ad was *not* responsible... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, this isn't the Electoral map I'd draw if I were entering an office pool, etc. But if the average of final live-interview national polls were right, this kind of popular vote margin wouldn't be out of the question. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Took the @CookPolitical swingometer for one last spin. Here's what it spits out when you plug in the demographic splits in final live-interview national polls (even assuming a 10% turnout bump among non-college whites and 5% bump for everyone else). https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/ekbfkifvNw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We've got eight late-breaking House rating changes coming to @CookPolitical in our *final* ratings tomorrow. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @b_schaffner: CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states: FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47 GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47 N… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The U.S. just surpassed 95 million early votes cast, per @WinWithJMC. That's 70% of the 137.1 million total votes cast in 2016, and we're on track for 100 million+ cast before polls open on Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Last-minute major House Dem Super PAC $$ to defend DCCC chair Cheri Bustos (D) in #IL17, via @PoliticsReid (this is correcting an earlier tweet mistakenly stating the DCCC had made the investment). https://t.co/gQKyo7LsCl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, a few counties to watch Tuesday night for clues: https://t.co/v02NrzcHNg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biggest mystery at the moment: will the Sun Belt "red wall" crumble on Tuesday? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Last-minute major DCCC $$ to defend its own chair, #IL17 Rep. Cheri Bustos (D), via @PoliticsReid. https://t.co/gQKyo7LsCl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*putting in — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How about instead of freaking out over last-minute polls/early turnout data, everyone take a moment before Tuesday to thank our nation's election workers, who are making in a heroic effort this year amid record-shattering turnout and unprecedented circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It doesn't deserve comment. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This isn't judgment either way on a Miami-Dade ballot backlog - it clearly merits investigation. But there's no proof on one in the turnout data, and we know from polling *and* turnout data in FL that non-white Dems are more skeptical of VBM, and Miami-Dade is heavily non-white. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Miami-Dade is indeed dead last among FL's large counties when it comes to the Dem mail turnout advantage vs. GOP. But it's not necessarily an outlier or proof of malfeasance: other counties w/ large non-white Dem populations (Duval, Osceola, Orange) are not far behind. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CNNOpinion: 'Slow down, take everything you see or hear with a grain of salt until it is fully vetted, and keep a balanced perspective… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@MollyJongFast It's been in play for a while, tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maybe the latter trend is noise, maybe it isn't, we'll see in a few days. But two things that are impossible to call noise: - Biden has made remarkable gains vs. Clinton among 65+ voters, esp. in the final month - We're headed for a historic gender canyon, not gap — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Most striking: stability of the race and Biden's lead. But a strange/fascinating twist: Biden's weakest point, September, was also his high-point w/ non-whites. Since then, Trump has narrowed Biden's lead w/ Black & Hispanic voters, even as Biden has stretched his lead overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not sure we'll get more "final" national live-interview polls, but here are my average crosstabs (in situations where pollsters polled twice in Oct., "October 2020" includes the first poll and "FInal 2020 Polls" includes the second). https://t.co/h833XhI5Sg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, here are the largest GOP early turnout advantages vs. Dems (among FL counties w/ 100k+ registrants): 1. Miami-Dade +8 2. Bay +3 3. Clay +3 4. Sumter +3 5. Osceola +3 6. Lee +1 7. Escambia +1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although it doesn't tell us anything about who will actually win FL, here are the largest Dem early turnout advantages vs. GOP (among FL counties w/ 100k+ registrants): 1. Alachua +9 2. Sarasota +7 3. Palm Beach +7 4. Pinellas +5 5. Lake +4 6. Leon +3 7. Broward +3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To avoid either being true, Trump would need to lose the popular vote by less than the 5.6% George H. W. Bush lost it in 1992. And with two days to go, that would require a pretty significant polling error. — PolitiTweet.org