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Showing page 12 of 504.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Phew, only four more days of crosstab truthing and early vote astrology until we have actual votes to analyze. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Some more welcome news for Upstate NY Dems in today’s @SienaResearch polls: #NY19: Josh Riley (D) 48%, Marc Molinaro (R) 43% #NY22: Fran Conole (D) 46%, Brandon Williams (R) 42% Both are Toss Ups at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Literally could be the margin of victory in #NY17. — PolitiTweet.org
Jacob Kornbluh @jacobkornbluh
The Skver Hasidic sect in New Square — with some 3,000 votes — endorses @KathyHochul for governor and Rep.… https://t.co/dhG6wMwmpV
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@lawnerdbarak The PA Supreme Court selected a map that was drawn by Democratic plaintiffs (Carter plaintiffs, represented by Marc Elias) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @grace_panetta: Conspiracy theories, records requests and lies: What running an election looks like right now https://t.co/JoaZGs9eea vi… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In this case, there’s no chance it’ll affect the outcome of a race since #TN06 and #TN07 are safe GOP seats. But given new maps & lots of very close races, there’s a decent chance an election administration error somewhere could lead to post-11/8 litigation. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I’m this case, there’s no chance it’ll affect the outcome of a race since #TN06 and #TN07 are safe GOP seats. But given new maps & lots of very close races, there’s a decent chance an election administration error somewhere could lead to post-11/8 litigation. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Expect small election administration errors like this one to pop up more frequently this year, given the high number of counties/precincts split unnecessarily in redistricting and the complexity of reassigning voters to new districts. — PolitiTweet.org
Kimberlee Kruesi @kkruesi
Big --> NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Election officials said Tuesday that some Tennessee voters have cast ballots in the… https://t.co/LovKar…
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
FWIW, there was only one way NV Dems could have ensured they'd win 3/4 House seats in the state, and that was to blatantly gerrymander a district from Las Vegas to Reno (hypothetical below). They opted against that, and all three Dem seats are at risk, esp. #NV01 and #NV03. https://t.co/FOy8rNnF71 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In this kind of enviro, some Likely/Lean races inevitably become more competitive - it’s just tough to tell which ones until very late (or at all). If the 35 Toss Ups in our new ratings were to split evenly, Rs would pick up ~17 seats, right in the middle of our 12-25 range. — PolitiTweet.org
Tom Bevan @TomBevanRCP
Cook/Wasserman: We've moved 10 more blue districts, all in the GOP's direction. Also Cook/Wasserman: We're stickin… https://t.co/vqoGidE2z7
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Those stairs aren’t always reliable. Sometimes a plank breaks and you fall through and land in the wrong place, as happened in 2020 when both parties’ polls misjudged the political environment. But it’s still preferable to jumping off the cliff. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
“Let’s all focus on the early vote data because the polls are broken” is the analytical equivalent of jumping off a cliff in a wing suit because the stairs to the bottom of the canyon are old and rickety. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
NEW @CookPolitical House ratings: 212 seats at least Lean R, 188 seats at least Lean D, 35 Toss Ups. Our outlook remains a GOP gain of 12-25 seats. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J https://t.co/9HGhOabasA — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans' direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J https://t.co/rD40MW6vdw — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A recurring theme this cycle: Dems drew maps in IL, NV, NM, OR, PA that spread out their voters to maximize their prospects of keeping the House - but by doing so they also increased the number of seats vulnerable to a strong GOP wave. — PolitiTweet.org
Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende
On PA-12, it isn't just that the R challenger has the same name as the retiring D incumbent, though that is part of… https://t.co/RyHIuaNup5
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@ktumulty It's not a political person, believe it or not! — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Our final* polls: the Senate is close, with some decent results for Democrats https://t.co/mEEUngwujY — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The highlight of my experience on here: a follow from my celebrity crush. Other than that, kinda looking forward to returning to obscurity when this site collapses. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @ShaneGoldmacher: NEW: Perhaps no place in the nation offers a more symbolic and consequential test of whether Democrats can claw back s… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
*Ok, I might check on Nevada's stats the weekend before 11/8, but that's like, it. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Biennial mental health tip.* https://t.co/dMnX7sIdtK — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@_HighThunder_ The numbers cited are for the new lines — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
P.S. Worth pointing out that @SienaResearch *did* poll the open #NY22 (Biden +7) a month ago and found the Republican up 5 pts. If every House outcome were 12 pts more pro-GOP than 2020 prez, Rs would end up +46 seats. So, House landscape unusually uneven. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
That's true - although I'd argue Dem incumbents are faring unevenly. Some (Davids, Peltola, Kildee, Golden) polling much stronger vs. '20 prez than others (Hayes, Titus, Maloney, Malinowski). I would've loved NYT/Siena to poll a vulnerable open seat like #OR05 or #PA17. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
An additional layer--which @Redistrict may disagree w, DK--is that it does seem like, in general, the incumbents ar… https://t.co/npu3XZ6lvP
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Even #NM02, where NYT/Siena had the Dem leading a GOP incumbent by a point, would be a 7 pt pro-GOP swing from the 2020 prez result there (Biden +6). If every House result were a 7 pt pro-GOP swing from 2020 prez, Rs would end up +19 seats - exactly in the middle of our range. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
FWIW, I see the four NYT/Siena polls as consistent with our House ratings and forecast of a 12-25 seat GOP gain. Yes, Ds have surprising strength in some red states/CDs (#KS03, #PA08). But they also have big problems in open seats & blue state CDs (tied in Biden +8 #NV01, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
FWIW, I see the four NYT/Siena as consistent with our House ratings and forecast of a 12-25 seat GOP gain. Yes, Dems have surprising strength in some red states/CDs (#KS03, #PA08). But they also have big problems in open seats & blue state CDs (tied in Biden +8 #NV01, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @databyler: People, I have some thoughts on early voting + using it to predict election results They are not positive https://t.co/q… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: Bc the House playing field is bifurcated in an unusual way this cycle. The ‘generic’ House CD isn’t telling full story. Lik… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The Dem best-positioned to win a Trump district: #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D). — PolitiTweet.org
Jake Zuckerman @jake_zuckerman
Marcy Kaptur ad: "....But the far left is wrong too. We should always stand for the national anthem. And defunding… https://t.co/fmXJCjMUcf
