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Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 30, 2022

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Fri Oct 28 19:59:16 +0000 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That's true - although I'd argue Dem incumbents are faring unevenly. Some (Davids, Peltola, Kildee, Golden) polling much stronger vs. '20 prez than others (Hayes, Titus, Maloney, Malinowski). I would've loved NYT/Siena to poll a vulnerable open seat like #OR05 or #PA17. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An additional layer--which @Redistrict may disagree w, DK--is that it does seem like, in general, the incumbents ar… https://t.co/npu3XZ6lvP

Posted Oct. 28, 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even #NM02, where NYT/Siena had the Dem leading a GOP incumbent by a point, would be a 7 pt pro-GOP swing from the 2020 prez result there (Biden +6). If every House result were a 7 pt pro-GOP swing from 2020 prez, Rs would end up +19 seats - exactly in the middle of our range. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022 Deleted after 20 seconds

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. Worth pointing out that @SienaResearch *did* poll the open #NY22 (Biden +7) a month ago and found the Republican up 5 pts. If every House outcome were 12 pts more pro-GOP than 2020 prez, Rs would end up +46 seats. So, House landscape unusually uneven. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022