Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 28, 2022

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Fri Oct 28 19:52:27 +0000 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even #NM02, where NYT/Siena had the Dem leading a GOP incumbent by a point, would be a 7 pt pro-GOP swing from the 2020 prez result there (Biden +6). If every House result were a 7 pt pro-GOP swing from 2020 prez, Rs would end up +19 seats - exactly in the middle of our range. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022 Deleted after 20 seconds

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I see the four NYT/Siena polls as consistent with our House ratings and forecast of a 12-25 seat GOP gain. Yes, Ds have surprising strength in some red states/CDs (#KS03, #PA08). But they also have big problems in open seats & blue state CDs (tied in Biden +8 #NV01, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That's true - although I'd argue Dem incumbents are faring unevenly. Some (Davids, Peltola, Kildee, Golden) polling much stronger vs. '20 prez than others (Hayes, Titus, Maloney, Malinowski). I would've loved NYT/Siena to poll a vulnerable open seat like #OR05 or #PA17. — PolitiTweet.org

An additional layer--which @Redistrict may disagree w, DK--is that it does seem like, in general, the incumbents ar… https://t.co/npu3XZ6lvP

Posted Oct. 28, 2022