Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The chances the entire 2020 election could come down to a very slow ballot count in Arizona are real. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pennsylvania is a bit of a bright spot for Dems in this regard: over the past four years of Census estimates, it's the only state in the nation that added more millennial college grads (+85k) than total 18+ residents (+83k). Then again, Trump would've won without PA in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, the six states critical to deciding the Electoral College in 2020 (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) have accounted for 25% of the nation's net voting age population increase, but just 21% of the nation's net increase in millennial college grads. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Data: over the past four years of Census estimates, the 20 blue states + DC have accounted for 39% of the nation's net voting age population increase, but 52% of the nation's net increase in millennial (18-34) college grads. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's left that *does* matter? Metros like Phoenix, Tucson, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Atlanta (maybe), Detroit, Omaha, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Madison. But in some of these, millennial growth has been lukewarm compared to the 12 above. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's left that does matter? Metros like Phoenix, Tucson, Miami, Orlando, Atlanta (maybe), Detroit, Omaha, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Madison. But in some of these, millennial growth has been lukewarm compared to the 12 above. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Think about a dozen of the hottest destinations for young, left-leaning college grads this decade: Austin Boston Chicago Dallas DC Denver LA Nashville NYC Portland SF Seattle Then consider: none of their votes will matter to the outcome of the 2020 presidential race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The more I look at this, the more I'd tweak. From red to blue, here's how I might rearrange the non-solid turf: OH, ME02, IA, TX, GA, FL, NC, NE02, AZ, WI (tipping point), MI, PA, NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Took Mitchell two expensive runs to get to Congress & 1.25 terms to become disillusioned enough to leave. R+13 district, @CookPolitical will keep in Solid R. https://t.co/rRCj9NIR2a — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Like, there might be a pretty big market in the 2020 Dem primary electorate for a young, progressive female veteran of color w̶h̶o̶ ̶s̶y̶m̶p̶a̶t̶h̶i̶z̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶A̶s̶s̶a̶d̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶c̶e̶ ̶v̶o̶c̶i̶f̶e̶r̶o̶u̶s̶l̶y̶ ̶o̶p̶p̶o̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶L̶G̶B̶T̶Q̶ ̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶s̶.̶ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s kinda interesting to think about where Gabbard might be in the race, given the strengths of her bio, if only she weren’t such a pariah in the Dem caucus/on foreign policy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Absolutely — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And AZ for that matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’d put NC closer to the center than FL, but pretty much. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Change We Can Believe In | Make America Great Again FL+IA+MI+OH+PA+WI > Electoral margin [Cap & trade | ACA repeal] fails Embarrassing [MA | AL] Sen special Signs [ACA | TCJA] into law Loses House, holds Senate Ties “elitist” opponent to [Tea Party | Squad] Reelected | ?? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Northampton Co., which includes Bethlehem, voted for Trump in ‘16 after twice voting for Obama (and every Dem since ‘92). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A small caveat: reevaluating voter attitudes after reading them various messages/attacks can greatly inform a campaign’s strategy. But publicly released “informed ballot” results have little to no predictive value. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, a cardinal rule of polling analysis: “informed ballots” (i.e. re-asking voters’ preferences after reading a series of statements) are almost always BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, a cardinal rule of polling analysis: “informed ballots” (i.e. re-asking voters’ preferences after reading a series of statements are almost always BS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not a great sign for Dems in #NC09 tbh. McCready has superior name ID from the ‘18 race and the lack of a lead in a Dem poll not good news for him in an R+8 district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: This book is fabulous https://t.co/Pz8YIbCRqD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: This is pretty sweet. https://t.co/37SydzhaLj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I suppose I’d just challenge @NateSilver538 to come up w/ any scenario in which the 2020 Dem loses the popular vote but wins the EC. Think it’s pretty damn hard to do. cc: @Nate_Cohn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s true that Obama enjoyed an EC bonus, esp. b/c he did an impressive job of defining Romney negatively early w/ swing state-targeted ads. It’s also true that slight shifts could convert a large Trump EC bonus into a modest Dem EC bonus, but prob only w/ a substantial Dem win. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s a fair critique. The size of the gap b/t the nation and the “tipping point” depends on a lot of things we can’t know right now, foremost the identity of the D nominee. But demographic patterns suggest it’s widened since 2016, in Trump’s favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One often-overlooked thing: if Dems were to flip MI & PA back but Trump were to hold onto AZ, FL, NC & WI, Omaha’s #NE02 (Trump +2 in ‘16) would be much likelier to get Dems to a 269-269 tie than #ME02 (Trump +10 in ‘16). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you were to tell me that AZ & WI were both essentially tied, that might line up pretty well w/ a scenario in which the Dem nominee is winning the popular vote by 4-5% nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Translation: the 2020 Dem nominee might need to beat Trump by at least ~4% in the popular vote to defeat him in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’d lean no...keep in mind that’d be like a 7 million vote margin (3 pts about 4 million) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

fwiw I’d lean yes. — PolitiTweet.org