Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few takeaways: 1) This is the fastest Dem-trending group in the electorate & it's why CO/VA have exited stage left. 2) Another reason why Dems have so much upside in TX (though still likelier on pace for '24 than '20). 3) But *zero* true EC tipping-point states on this list. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Top 15 states for college degree-holders as % of all eligible white voters (excluding DC, 88%): 1. MA 45% 2. CO 45% 3. HI 44% 4. CA 43% 5. NJ 43% 6. MD 43% 7. CT 43% 8. NY 42% 9. VA 40% 10. NM 38% 11. IL 37% 12. TX 37% 13. MN 36% 14. WA 35% 15. VT 35% Hmm...which stands out? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hard skip https://t.co/EnaVXrZBuK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bottom line: Dems don't need to win a higher % of the WWC than in '16 b/c 1) it's declining as a % of voters and 2) Dems have made robust gains among college whites. But Dems *can't* afford to backslide much further & hope to win MI/PA/WI etc. And avoiding that isn't simple. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not about winning the demog. It’s about Dems not getting absolutely annihilated. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Moreover, the notion that voting behavior is polarized to the point that there aren't any swing/persuadable voters left isn't based in reality. Not only did we see above-average swings from '12 to '16, Dems wouldn't have gone +40 in '18 without converting lots of '16 R voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Much of the analysis I'm seeing on this site assumes there's no more room for Dems to fall w/ white non-college voters, who are simply a "lost cause." In fact, Dems have an awful lot more room to fall w/ them, and that's especially true in many of the most critical EC states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems' path to beating Trump absolutely depends on retaining the gains they made in diverse, college-educated burbs - the kinds we saw in 2018 & #NC09. But even a slight drop among white non-college voters could negate all of it, given the demog's size & geographic distribution. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems' backslide w/ these voters is the main reason IA (66%) and OH (60%) have already exited stage right off the EC battleground, and why a Dem nominee who performs even worse w/ them could risk losses in ME (66%), NH (61%) or MN (56%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's why the "let's win without working-class whites" mentality doesn't hold water for Dems. That demog comprises 45% of all eligible U.S. voters, but: 61% in Wisconsin 61% in New Hampshire 56% in Michigan 56% in Minnesota 56% in Pennsylvania 47% in North Carolina Good luck. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s this shift from a 25% to 37% R margin between 2012 and 2016 that won Trump the presidency. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BenJKest @JMilesColeman where’s my invite? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Highly recommend -> — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The type of candidate Dems' debate stage most glaringly lacks? a non-DC woman. And, the core motivating issue for Dems that has gotten the least debate time? Voting rights. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just crunched an interesting stat: there are 263 U.S. counties where non-whites are the majority of the voting-eligible population. Obama carried 210/263 in '12, Clinton 199/263 in '16. Largest to flip red: 1) Jefferson, TX; 2) Robeson, NC Largest to flip blue: Fort Bend, TX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The question for 2020: will Dems nominate someone who will allow Trump to self-destruct in the suburbs (already on display in Charlotte, etc.), or someone who gets in the way? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the same time, Dems have a real & growing problem in places like low-income Robeson Co., home to "Trump Dems" most wealthy suburban Dems never see or interact with. Robeson's an extreme case, but it's got cultural cousins in MI/PA/WI. And, Dems have more room to fall in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Last night makes clear: there's a five-alarm fire for Trump in Whole Foods suburbs. Trump carried the immediate Charlotte burbs of #NC09 by 4% in 2016, but McCready (D) won them by 9% in 2018 and 12% yesterday. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A possible reason I'm hearing from Dems as to why there was a massive pro-GOP swing in Robeson Co.: in March, state Sen. Dan Bishop (R) sponsored a bill to open up more grant opportunities to Lumbee tribe. Looks like it paid off. https://t.co/EAVAvvSm6J — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Agree 100%. Totally irresponsible analysis. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans should feel relieved they avoided a loss, but here's why Bishop's 2% win isn't encouraging: there are 35 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #NC09, per @CookPolitical PVI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One way for Dems to claw back in places like rural NC in 2020: nominate a candidate who energizes black voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JMilesColeman: All but one of the Lumbee Indian precincts are in; they went from McCready (D) +21% in 2018 to Bishop (R) +3% tonight. #… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting: in the other special tonight that got far less attention, #NC03, Murphy (R) won by 24.3%, actually a touch above Trump's 24.0% margin from 2016. Wouldn't have guessed that earlier today. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And frankly, it's easy to see a very liberal, coastal Dem presidential nominee performing much worse than McCready (D) and Clinton among these voters. Dems underestimate how much room there still is to fall with these anti-elite voters at their own peril. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you had told me yesterday McCready (D) would carry Mecklenberg Co. (Bishop's base in Charlotte burbs) by 12.6% after winning it by just 9.5% in 2018, I would've bet he'd win. But his poor showing among rural Trump Dems (yes, they're a real constituency) cost Dems a pickup. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SteveKornacki: Native Americans from the Lumbee Tribe are a plurality in Robeson County. Their politics are complicated -- they helped… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear: a ~2% Bishop (R) victory in #NC09, a district that voted for Trump by 12%, is still bad news for the House GOP overall. It won't do anything to convince House Rs undecided about seeking reelection in 2020 that they're in position to win back the majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Final Robeson Co. results: McCready (D) won it by just 1.1% tonight, despite winning it by 15.3% last fall. Just an awful performance that helped cost Dems this special. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Democrats want to understand how they lost to Trump despite gaining tons of ground in places like Charlotte & the Triangle, they need to visit Robeson County, NC right away. — PolitiTweet.org