Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this point, there are two likely reasons for ballot rejection: voter error (failure to sign, etc.) and voter voluntarily canceling their ballot because they want to vote a different way. It's tough to know how much each is responsible for the discrepancy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far in NC, November 2020 mail ballots cast by Black voters are being rejected at *four times* the rate of those cast by white voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SCBegley: This detail from @CharlotteAlter's conversations with conspiracy theorists in Wisconsin is beyond horrifying https://t.co/S6j… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few Dems are doing quite well in competitive districts by forcefully pushing back on "defunding the police" and touting support from law enforcement - an ad tactic we haven't really seen from the Biden camp yet. https://t.co/ExjKRMjqNJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @gercohen: @rickhasen @jbarro @Redistrict in NC “spoiled” ballots are those voluntarily cancelled by the voter) -should not be viewed as… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The places likely to see the biggest shifts from Trump to Biden are historically red places that are heavily urbanized. That's why AZ, #NE02 and TX are at the top of the list. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden's biggest remaining challenge: social media giants are in way over their heads when it comes to vetting/stopping disinformation. A TV station would, in most cases, pull ads like these down. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now, the caveats: it's unlikely the partisan VBM gap will be quite that extreme, and it's possible the convenience of VBM could produce Dem votes that otherwise wouldn't have been cast. But this analysis also doesn't take into account mail ballots bound to arrive *too late.* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let's say there are each 2.5 million Biden/Trump voters in NC. 50% of Biden's voters vote by mail vs. 10% of Trump's. 4% of mail votes are initially rejected and only half of those voters successfully "cure." That's a 20k vote swing to Trump - roughly Obama's '08 margin in NC. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, NC Dems are out-voting Reps 59%-12% by mail. But about 4% of mail ballots are being rejected for voter error and must be "cured" by the voter. That could be meaningful in a very close race. https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This might be the most encouraging result for Trump in an otherwise discouraging poll - and Biden's "Be Not Afraid" ad does nothing to combat Trump's false line of attack on defunding police. https://t.co/JwWLGLpgGX https://t.co/Gqqmqv9hq9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Believe it or not, this voter exists (and might help decide 2020)... https://t.co/C4NTtX0nfQ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who’s chomping at the bit to vote by mail? Mostly white Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just received this delightful mug anonymously in the mail. https://t.co/Te4NfHRhFR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bingo. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In fairness, the Biden campaign also began running this more conventional ad on 8/26 in the Orlando/Tampa markets. https://t.co/rsHsjCAW2j — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By contrast, Biden countered with this Bad Bunny ad in the Miami/Orlando/Tampa markets on September 1st. https://t.co/byxBtFb2AY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By contrast, Biden countered with this Bad Bunny ad in the Miami/Orlando on September 1st. https://t.co/byxBtFb2AY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A likely factor behind Trump's '16-'20 improvement w/ Hispanic voters: he's actually running a robust Spanish-language ad campaign this time, as opposed to "here's a taco bowl...I love Hispanics!" https://t.co/taVhhA3MGI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NickRiccardi: Typically good and nuanced warning from @SeanTrende https://t.co/ZWfZmkgCv9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: More from NC Board of Election on fears of election being hacked: “The machines aren’t hackable, what is hackable is the mi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Exactly... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: 🚨New Electoral College rating changes: Florida - Lean D to Toss Up Nevada - Likely D to Lean D Read @amyewalter's lates… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kirk_bado: Wrote earlier this week about the growing importance of health care for GOP candidates and these screen grabs from a primary… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On the aggregate, seniors (65+) make up 25% of the vote in FL/AZ/WI/MI/PA/NC vs. just 21% elsewhere. Led, of course, by ~28% in FL/AZ. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's hard to recall a candidate whose support was more concentrated among 50-64 year olds than Trump's has been all year. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps the best number for Biden in this new @MonmouthPoll is his 54%-43% lead among seniors - a reliable voting group that's overrepresented in the core battleground states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MonmouthPoll: NATIONAL POLL: #2020GeneralElection matchup for president: REGISTERED VOTERS: 51% @JoeBiden 42% @realDonaldTrump 2% J… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: when Trump took office in 2017, Republicans controlled 41 of the 100 most college-educated House districts in the country. Today they control just 18, and eight of those are currently in @CookPolitical's Toss Up column or worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JMilesColeman: Wow that NE MN number -- their final 2018 poll gave Tim Walz about the same overall lead as Biden now (49-41), but Walz… — PolitiTweet.org