Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeeMiringoff The well-documented problem is that the '16 exits were way too college-heavy. Census data yields a '16 WI electorate that was 59.7% non-college white. Adjusting for population change since '16 yields ~57%. But if turnout goes up in '20 (a good bet), NCW % likely goes up too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This underscores the urgency for Trump of getting much closer to his '16 numbers among non-college whites. Even if you crank up their turnout to 100%, his current weaker standing w/ them vs. Biden just won't cut it. For Biden, it's all about just holding the line. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, in the above map, I'm assuming every demographic group sees a 5 point turnout bump vs. '16, but being extra-generous to Trump by assuming a 10 point bump in non-college white turnout. Even so: Biden 375, Trump 163. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As you might glean, it's not *that* far off from what state polls are showing! The notable exceptions might be: 1) FL, where Trump's gains w/ Hispanics have outpaced his national gains 2) GA, where non-college white voters are less elastic than they are in Upper Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you were only to go by September's live-interview national polls (averaging demographic crosstabs, ignoring state polls), here's how that might roughly translate in the Electoral College: https://t.co/TkXkxY9Lxb https://t.co/bfpIOIAbK7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Among Hispanic voters, Biden's average lead so far in Sept. is 60%-32%, up from 56%-31% in Aug. (Clinton led 61%-23% in final 2016 polls). Not surprisingly, Trump's gains in past month have been concentrated among whites. Race looking more racially polarized as Nov. approaches. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A positive sign for Biden: among Black voters, he leads 87%-7% so far in the average crosstabs of September's live-interview polls. That's up from 83%-9% in August polls (Clinton led 83%-5% in 2016's final pre-election polls). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beware polls that aren't weighted by education. A new WI survey showing Biden up by more than others has a sample that's 52% non-college whites. In reality, non-college whites are poised to be at least 57% of all WI voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BruneElections: A bit misleading. 95% of total Ohio ballots should be counted on election night. Democrats will likely gain ~1% after f… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@grace_panetta The 2022 House map is nonexistent AF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Something everyone needs to be prepared for: viral, propagandistic and false insinuations of election misconduct. This is an especially complicated, fraught election for election officials to administer. Mistakes will be made - and overwhelmingly *not* out of nefarious intent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also extremely unusual: DOJ releasing *for whom* military ballots were cast, especially before the matter has been fully investigated. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are, however, two easy opportunities to neutralize Trump attacks I’m surprised the Biden campaign *hasn’t* taken so far: 1) go to Miami and give an anti-Putin/communism speech 2) tout support from a multi-racial coalition of sheriffs/police chiefs in swing state ads — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On Election Night, no one: “Joe Biden would have this in the bag right now, except back in September he called a press lid to do debate prep.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The main argument for FL vs. AZ: African-American share (14.5% vs 4.4%). But the white vote is also far more polarized in FL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: New: I dug into ballots rejected for lack of secrecy envelopes, or "naked" ballots in Pennsylvania — there have been pro… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two other big reasons I’m more bullish on Biden’s chances in AZ than FL: 1) AZ’s vote is a lot more metropolitan (no real north FL/Panhandle, though Mohave Co. and the Villages are similar I guess) 2) AZ’s Latinos tend to be of Mexican rather than Cuban ancestry — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

AZ and FL are demographically similar in a lot of ways (Hispanic share, seniors, etc.). But one thing going for Dems in AZ as opposed to FL: a much higher share of Asian/Native American/other eligible voters (7.1% vs. 3.3%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There’s gotta be a more flattering photo of this R candidate his campaign could’ve used. #ME02 https://t.co/CiznkfocHR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Real_BenShapiro Just one scenario...also think it's possible Biden gets 17 million more votes than Clinton. Mainly I think turnout's just going to be way up from '16 in general. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By the way, the only Trump '16 turf Biden flips blue in this Dem nightmare scenario: Omaha's #NE02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's why it's possible - though unlikely - Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million! and still win reelection by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College. https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/uKyLNVNUQT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PatrickRuffini Except, their movement from 2016 to 2020, in an overwhelming number of polls, has been anti-Trump (or perhaps anti-Clinton to pro-Biden). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is this doable for Trump? I'd argue it's *likely.* But the problems for Trump are...1) today, Biden's winning a much higher share of non-college whites than Clinton did and 2) both college whites and non-whites are likely to spike in turnout as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting finding: to offset non-college whites' decline as a share of adult citizens since '16, Trump would need to boost their turnout from 55% to ~60% *just to get back to* 306 Electoral votes. https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/VNe2WrDx4w — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FAQ: a few have asked but no, the term “swingometer” is not a reference to Jerry Falwell, Jr. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Among the least persuasive arguments I ever hear from candidates/campaigns: "our early vote numbers look really good." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @steveschale pointed out, Duval, FL should be on this list. Btw, there are a few on here I consider *very* likely flips, including Seminole, Johnson, Morris and Chesterfield. There are others I consider real reaches for Biden, including Ada, Collin and Spokane. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kirk_bado: New from me in HARRISBURG: https://t.co/tz3DOrQQb4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HotlineJosh: “The media are right to brace the public for a week or more of counting. But preaching patience is different from predicti… — PolitiTweet.org