Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder of voting preference by method, per new @pewresearch national survey (10k+ RVs): Mail (39%): 69%-27% Biden Early in-person (21%): 55%-40% Biden Election Day (33%): 63%-31% Trump These stories don’t tell us anything about the outcome. https://t.co/m91P0vQRMq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's why I have a hard time imagining 25k EDay ballots left to count on top of 75k mail/early votes: on 8/31/20, Sumter only had 103k total registered voters. Let's say another 3k registrants before book closing. That'd be 94% turnout! In 2016, Sumter turnout was 83%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Again, only if the early/mail over something like a 75k vote threshold. If it's well below that, I certainly wouldn't be drawing conclusions — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn *62%-37% Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn But let's say 75k Sumter early/mail votes go 62%-37% Biden. Then we get another 25k EDay ballots that go 81%-18% Trump. That puts Trump up 67%-32%. That's still 7 points down from the 42 point margin Scott won there in '18 - and Scott did really well in Miami-Dade/Osceola! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Yes, that's why two-to-one is referring to the *total, completed* Sumter vote, not just the early/mail vote. If you think Trump can win FL w/ less than a two-to-one lead in Sumter, I think that's a mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn That's why I'd caveat it by saying >75k votes counted. If it was substantially less than that, it'd show Trump has shifted a lot of his vote in senior-heavy areas to Election Day, in which case there's a larger potential for a pro-Trump swing when EDay votes are added. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If, on the other hand, we see Sumter mail/early results come in at something like 66%-33% for Trump, we're likely talking about a very close race in FL - and it's going to be a much longer night. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this point, several House Rs would probably be politically wise to start making this case/throwing Trump under bus. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@MichaelDavSmith Personally yes, although a network wouldn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If we see Sumter mail/early results at 7pm that come in something like 62%-37% for Trump w/ more than 75k ballots counted, I'd personally consider that to be game over for the president. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pro tip: if Trump doesn't win Sumter Co. (The Villages) at least two-to-one, he's not winning FL - or a second term. In 2016, it went 68%-29% Trump. 84% of Sumter's '16 vote was cast early/by mail (vs. 69% statewide), so we should have a good sense pretty early. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My brief yard sign analysis of the election: the bold type Bid🇺🇸n/Harris logo is a big improvement on the Clinton “H➡️” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But we’re likely to have the opposite counting order in much of the Upper Midwest/other states. If FL goes Biden, game over for Trump. If it’s close/narrowly Trump, we’re just going to have to wait in MI/PA/WI/AZ...possibly days/weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The difference is we’re likely to get a huge initial burst for Biden in FL b/c they count mail in advance and release the totals at poll closing; it’s going to be Trump who needs to catch up in the 8/9/10pm hours. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @TexasTribAbby: Here we go. Texas is in play at the presidential level. But not in the way you think it is. https://t.co/ylMZcC9KsC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@pstrasberg Good for you, but my point wasn't about your enthusiasm. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I realize Fairfax's long lines will end once satellite voting locations open on 10/14. But all over the country, I do wonder if news footage of huge early voting lines discourages low-propensity voters by giving the (mostly false) impression that voting necessarily takes hours. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@skywalkerbeth A few other neighbor localities (% of total 2016 turnout): Fairfax City: 37% Alexandria City: 36% Arlington Co.: 32% Loudoun Co.: 32% Prince William Co.: 27% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Falls Church, VA is already at 50% of its *total* 2016 ballots cast. Neighboring Fairfax County, VA at just 17% b/c of its long early voting lines. https://t.co/k1oOfGahJY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Mark your calendars: the incomparable @SteveScully will be moderating a lively discussion about 2020's U.S. House races with yours truly, Sunday, Oct. 25th on @cspanwj. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Ehh. More likely he's panicking, is suffering from some lingering effects of COVID, is surrounded by people giving him b… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big news in #MN02. @CookPolitical rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@j_m_fanning @RadioFreeTom I'll be working for @NBCNews's decision desk team on 11/3, but I hold Fox's in high esteem. Led by @arnonmishkin, Fox's team is one of the most statistically rigorous, empirically-minded teams in the business. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Smart visit for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: I'm 100% in favor of this rule for 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

These mistakes do happen - and they're human error, not fraud. The important thing is that they're caught in time & voters are notified. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @KlugeCtr: Beyond the Presidential Election: The Battle for the House and Senate with @julia_azari and @Redistrict is now available! htt… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tune into @MSNBC's @mitchellreports in a few minutes, where we'll be discussing 2020's top bellwether counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JoshSchwerin We'll see who's right, but it doesn't really hold water that Trump has a better shot in #NE02 than he has in FL/PA/MI/WI given that whites are considerably less college-educated in all four of those than they are in Omaha. — PolitiTweet.org