Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 23, 2021

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Sat Oct 10 14:39:08 +0000 2020

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Yes, that's why two-to-one is referring to the *total, completed* Sumter vote, not just the early/mail vote. If you think Trump can win FL w/ less than a two-to-one lead in Sumter, I think that's a mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn That's why I'd caveat it by saying >75k votes counted. If it was substantially less than that, it'd show Trump has shifted a lot of his vote in senior-heavy areas to Election Day, in which case there's a larger potential for a pro-Trump swing when EDay votes are added. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn But let's say 75k Sumter early/mail votes go 62%-37% Biden. Then we get another 25k EDay ballots that go 81%-18% Trump. That puts Trump up 67%-32%. That's still 7 points down from the 42 point margin Scott won there in '18 - and Scott did really well in Miami-Dade/Osceola! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2020 Hibernated