Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @DanAncona @whstancil but either way, the post-industrial left is supplanting the industrial left across the developed the post-industrial world, with the pace and story varying by country but nonetheless headed in the same general direction — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @DanAncona @whstancil my view--and i think yours--is that in the US, and probably elsewhere, the post-industrial left has influence in excess of its share of the electorate, mainly bc of cultural clout, to the modest detriment of center-left parties — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @jbouie @DanAncona @whstancil i don't think there's any tension between telling the particular story of how something happened in the US and recognizing that the underlying forces are evident across the post-industrial world — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @davidshor @DanAncona @whstancil that said: if you're trying to influence the dem party as it is, which is how i generally read shor, then zeroing in on the challenges associated with the current cohort of unrepresentative staffers could conceivably be more productive than lamenting the underlying forces — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @davidshor @DanAncona @whstancil i think that's right--from an explanatory perspective, there's a clear conflation of cause and effect — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @davidshor @DanAncona @whstancil yeah, totally. here again i may be reading generously, but i think it's reasonable to read his critique of the dominance of <35 yo elite college grads in dem politics with those historical and contemporary alternatives in mind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @davidshor @DanAncona @whstancil i may be overly generous in my read of his tweet, which taken literally is extremely narrow. but either way, i don't think it's a huge problem for the theory if the issue has been going on for a long time, given the secular if fitful attenuation of dem white low ses support — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @davidshor @DanAncona @whstancil And it's not a novel argument--I think this was even part of how @Edsall e… https://t.co/jUtfoO1zwO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie @davidshor @DanAncona @whstancil i think there is a serious long-term case that the late-1960s activist tak… https://t.co/iyLDbcVUYs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Jim_Brunner: Here are the "adjusted" WA election results displayed at Lindell's event this week... You can't make this stuff up, but th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These trends aren't inevitable. Maybe Dems will even rebound among some of these groups, and suddenly give Democrats a decisive victory. But the last decade of actual election results is a reminder that it's not inevitable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The story for why Democrats aren't any stronger is pretty well-known. They've lost ground among white no college and Hispanic voters. Their losses among Latinos not only rival their losses among white working class voters, but are more than enough to cancel demographic shifts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But a lot of it is that the Dems, on net, really just aren't any stronger. Biden 20 and Obama 12 both won the national vote by 4. The Senate is 50-50; the House is so close that this very data may help cost Democrats the House, by handing more districts to the red states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some of this is a function of the bias of our electoral system, which mutes the effect of narrow demographic shifts. Many Democratic gains are occurring in districts and states where they were already winning--or else in states, like TX, where they haven't quite broken through — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing worth keeping in mind amid all the political analysis of the 2020 census: the 2020 election. Despite all the favorable demographic trends, Democrats aren't really any stronger than they were at the beginning of the decade https://t.co/C1JH8QoiWx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias maybe i'm among those who fundamentally misunderstand it! i understood your argument to be something like "things aren't that bad--voting rights are safe," not "nbd if voting rights go away, no voting rights is well within historic precedent," which is how I understood your reply — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias lol maybe not the strongest reply you could have had here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's certainly a possibility (esp with question and mode changes), and I'm reminded of the increased number of people identifying as 'some other race' in our own polling last year https://t.co/lK4VEvWqPz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some notable state data-points: Georgia just 50.1% non-Hispanic white, and probably majority minority by now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When you couple this with the sweeping decline in the rural population, it's a pretty decent set of data for Democrats in redistricting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

White, non-Hispanic population falls to 57.8%, per Census data, 2 points lower than expected. Hispanic share at 18.7, a tenth of a point higher than expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This looks right, based on a Census slide, so with that added bit of confidence--but still waiting for confirmation--I'll add the more surprising result: non-Hispanic white population share down to 57.8%, 2 points beneath the 2020 estimate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Vast swaths of rural America--and an outright majority of all counties--lose population, per Census https://t.co/7sU8ZS8wIS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Assuming I've done this right (wait for confirmation: I'm tweeting in hope of a second opinion, since I've never used summary files), national Hispanic population share (excluding PR!) is 18.7 percent, or right in line with prior estimates. https://t.co/69PWBIIvqF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ProfNickStephan: A reminder, as we enter the next redistricting cycle, that *competitive* maps aren't the same as *fair* maps. Empirica… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bydanielvictor: Indonesia’s army says it will stop subjecting female recruits to so-called virginity tests, which are invasive, pseudos… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mluckovichajc: https://t.co/UWyDVKSkmW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @perrybaconjr it's hard to measure, of course, or balance various elements of the progressive universe, like nonprofits. but it is hard for me to accept an utterly powerless "conventional wisdom," which can neither win a serious Democratic primary nor run a serious Democratic campaign — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @perrybaconjr no doubt, there are plenty of activists and progressives who advance some alternative vision of D victory (but never actually have their hands on the wheel when it counts). but the idea that they represent the "conventional wisdom" of capital-D "Democrats" seems quite odd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @perrybaconjr popularism--as i understand the term-- seems like it's been the accepted view among Democrats... for decades? you won't get that impression on https://t.co/A33jmcR68K, but the campaigns in swing districts seem to speak for themselves — PolitiTweet.org