Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 21, 2021

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Fri Aug 13 11:55:00 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But a lot of it is that the Dems, on net, really just aren't any stronger. Biden 20 and Obama 12 both won the national vote by 4. The Senate is 50-50; the House is so close that this very data may help cost Democrats the House, by handing more districts to the red states — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Some of this is a function of the bias of our electoral system, which mutes the effect of narrow demographic shifts. Many Democratic gains are occurring in districts and states where they were already winning--or else in states, like TX, where they haven't quite broken through — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The story for why Democrats aren't any stronger is pretty well-known. They've lost ground among white no college and Hispanic voters. Their losses among Latinos not only rival their losses among white working class voters, but are more than enough to cancel demographic shifts — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 13, 2021