Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don’t entirely follow why everyone thinks Twitter is about to vanish, but if so you can find me here: https://t.co/vfLG2cOZH5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena, in comparison, had the more GOP electorate (and hopefully an accurate one, when all the data arrives) yet had the more Democratic result: NV - Even AZ - R+8 PA - D+1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena, in comparison, had the more GOP electorate (and I expect the more accurate one when all the data arrives) yet had the more Democratic result: NV - Even AZ - R+8 PA - D+1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NV: Trafalgar D+2 v. reg D+3 AZ: Trafalgar R+4; reg R+4 PA: Trafalgar D+4; reg D+5 Actual electorate likely more GOP in each case — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trafalgar blames the turnout. This is not the first time a pollster has blamed turnout -- it's a convenient excuse, even though it's usually not credible. Interestingly, Trafalgar had very Dem samples by registration, so I doubt this is the issue https://t.co/nuwXKQkHiJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2020, provisionals in PA went up, but Biden didn't fare so well among them. Many Republicans who requested mail ballots voted provisional in person. Fetterman has already netted more out of 8.5k provisionals than Biden did over 100k, with the big blue counties still out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is mainly relevant for anticipating the post-election night shift in 2024, but Fetterman appears to be faring very well among provisional ballots https://t.co/C5nEMXzZ13 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans win the House, according to the AP. They carried CA-27, giving them the 218th seat needed for a majority, after Republicans won the latest batch of votes by 10 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RuthIgielnik: A backdrop for today's news on same-sex marriage: attitudes toward same-sex marriage have been among the most significant… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JacobRubashkin: BREAKING | Maine’s 2nd District has run the ranked choice voting instant runoff tabulation. The final results: Golden… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One note: all of these unstated turnout estimates (after all, party needing x% supposes some number remaining votes) are based on the AP's turnout estimates, which is what's on our website — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CA13 and CA22, OTOH, are in the 'later' than 'sooner.' CA13, Dems have stretched out a lead but a lot of the remaining vote is in GOP turf. Might well tighten back up. In CA22, the GOP has held up comparatively well but there's a ton left in slow-counting Kern County. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CA47: --On 11/9, Dems led by 1. --Dems have led the post-election count by 3 points. --To win, the GOP needs to win what's left by 9 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CA49: --On 11/9, Dems led by 2. --Now, Dems lead by 4.5. --This sure seems closer to a call: GOP needs to win what's left by 35. Dems have won the late count by 9. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CA3: --On 11/9, the GOP led by 6. --Now... they lead by 6. --Dems need to win what's out by 7 points; there's still a lot of vote left here. So far, GOP has won the late count by 3 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CA27: --On 11/9, GOP led by 15! --Now it's down to 8 points, as the Democrats have won the post-election count by 9. --But to win, Dems would need to win what's out by 19. Yesterday was an even split. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well ... we've been on the "cusp" of a House takeover for a while now. While we wait, here's a quick rundown on how the post-election count has gone in the outstanding CDs that have a chance to be called sooner (notice that this is a relative term) than later — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @SeanTrende the most reasonable interpretation of the GCB and the popular vote is that democrats would have won the House and the most votes in August/September — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @SeanTrende whether that was true by october, though, is a little more complicated — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss eek good catch — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of options for the GOP to get that 218th seat, perhaps as soon as tomorrow https://t.co/7PLpxJNNF5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans are on the cusp of winning a House majority after winning N.Y. 22, Calif. 41 and Calif. 45, according to the AP. It gives the party 217 seats -- just one short of the 218 needed to win a majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChrisatPTS i would read a tweet thread on your understanding of wha'ts out there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the GOP getting the call in closely fought AZ1/AZ6, the path to a fairly quick resolution to the House suddenly starts to look pretty open: CA41, CA45, CA27, CA3 aren't especially close; NY22 is basically done and is presumably (?) just a matter of accounting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the GOP getting the call in closely fought AZ1/AZ6, the path to a fairly quick resolution to the House suddenly starts to look pretty open: CA41, CA45, CA25, CA3 aren't especially close; NY22 is basically done and is presumably (?) just a matter of accounting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans win Arizona's First and Sixth Districts, according to the AP. It brings the GOP up to 214 seats -- just four seats short of the 218 needed for a majority — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Katie Hobbs is the winner in Arizona, according to the AP. That gives Democrats a gubernatorial sweep against stop-the-steal candidates in the battleground states where Trump tried to overturn the last election https://t.co/UAL9S7T4gA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We take AP calls except under pretty unusual circumstances https://t.co/hNl1cgKR13 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alright, maybe they'll muster up a call after another double or triple check of the numbers. We are up against the edge of the recount range, after all https://t.co/UknP6CTkGJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Meanwhile, the latest round of AZ-GOV ballots seems to have left the decision desks... unsure about what to do. Lake won 57-43 -- a tally at once quite a bit short of what she needs to overtake Hobbs, but apparently just enough to give folks some pause — PolitiTweet.org