Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked April 3, 2023

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Thu Nov 17 14:40:45 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trafalgar blames the turnout. This is not the first time a pollster has blamed turnout -- it's a convenient excuse, even though it's usually not credible. Interestingly, Trafalgar had very Dem samples by registration, so I doubt this is the issue https://t.co/nuwXKQkHiJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2020, provisionals in PA went up, but Biden didn't fare so well among them. Many Republicans who requested mail ballots voted provisional in person. Fetterman has already netted more out of 8.5k provisionals than Biden did over 100k, with the big blue counties still out — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NV: Trafalgar D+2 v. reg D+3 AZ: Trafalgar R+4; reg R+4 PA: Trafalgar D+4; reg D+5 Actual electorate likely more GOP in each case — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2022