Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And this isn't even a true best case for Democrats--not only in these states, but also in places like SC/LA or even elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Once you're past 218, the median district is *more* Democratic than the nation as a whole, giving the party a chance to win the House without winning the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my mind, the realistic but 'good' scenario for Democrats--not a true best case scenario--clearly involves 30 additional Dem PVI seats, giving them more than the 218 they would need for a truly *fair* congressional map https://t.co/eEPNhqfyzi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To get 218, Dems need 28 more Dem-tilting seats from PA, NC, OH, FL and AL. In each of these states, there's a realistic 'bad' and 'good' option for Democrats — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's start by penciling in the likely-conservative outcome in every state but PA, NC, OH, FL, AL (I say conservative bc I'll assume, say, a 1-1 split in NH). If you do that, you get 190 seats that voted more for Biden than the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm seeing a fair amount of fighting over this tweet. Whether it's right depends on the meaning of 'very substantial,' ofc, and it's hard to assign probabilities to a lot of this But it is at least a real possibility at this point. Let's work through it https://t.co/cTW5VpDQN9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig (eric adams is an exception in that regard; it'll be interesting to see how he plays out as a model, esp since black voters are really the only democratic constituency with the potential to nudge the party in a less elite direction) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig i don't entirely disagree, but note that these examples are basically entirely vestigial--the still very real yet unmistakably fading remnants of an earlier era of politics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig figuring out how to rebuild those connections in a really fractured and atomized society is going to be really hard. realistically, it won't be done until progressive and mass causes happen to align again, but we'll see — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig but the bottom-line is that the most basic connections between the rank-and-file of the electorate and Democratic politicians has been frayed, and a bunch of other people (progressive elites) has basically stepped in the way and unwittingly cut the line behind them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig obviously i think that's extremely challenging for democrats at this point: the demise of unions and urban machines, the diversity of the party, increasing self-ID'd liberals, and tbh the limits of how non-college people can engage with elites on acceptable terms makes this hard — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig this is different than popularism--which, to my mind, is still a fundamentally elite driven party. in that model, elites come up with ideas and then figure out which ones the public will tolerate. it will need to work the other way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig but it is has been made worse by decades of prioritizing the demands of a fairly small idealistic elite liberal faction over the rest of the electorate, and figuring out how to build a party that's responsive to the rest would be one obvious place to start — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig i think it's partly inevitable with the partial success of mid-century labor-liberal reformism, much in the same way that liberalism became elite whiggery with its success against monarchy/feudalism — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig and the whig/progressive tradition, of course, has many proud moments of supporting democratic reforms in both the US and the UK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig i suppose anyone can construe anything as anything. but i simply don't think there's a credible argument that the animating drive behind modern progressivism can be analogized, in any way, with the fight between liberalism and capital/feudalism/colonialism etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig i suppose i should be clear what i mean by modern liberalism here: the postgraduate, postindustrial, postmaterialist liberal-left we were talking about earlier — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig sure and if anyone thought modern liberalism was animated by a push for unionization, that would be really relevant — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig today's version of liberalism has a lot more in common with its whig-liberal tradition than its left-liberal tradition. i think that's a proud tradition, but there's a reason it courts jacksonian democracy as a populist conservative alternative — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig liberalism claims a populist-left mantle when it can be construed in this way, whether it be in a fight against feudalism, capital or colonialism. liberalism without that has a name and a history: whiggery — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig there is something deeper here than simply whether democrats support expert decision-making--it's whether you can construe modern liberalism as a democratizing force that empowers 'the people' to have more control over their lives at the expense of the elite — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @EricLevitz @MattBruenig there is something deeper here than simply whether democrats support expert decision-making--it's whether you can construe modern liberalism as a democratizing force that empowers 'the people' to have more control over their lives at the expense of the elite — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NavigatorSurvey: NEW FOCUS GROUP ON BIDEN APPROVAL RATING: Biden’s approval rating among Black Americans has declined 10 points over t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i'm a little surprised you think they would split pittsburgh/no district wholly in allegheny. it seems like a pretty big step further in pursuit of partisan balance than last time, though admittedly the process is quite different — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite @davidshor you can see an IRL ex of acquiescence bias with the sort of similar monmouth question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And interestingly, it's not quite normalcy v. the status quo--it's normalcy v. more effective pandemic response. Nothing necessarily anything wrong with that question, but it is slightly different — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this case, I think it's easier to see how it would understate the normalcy side--support for more vaccines, for ex, may not be mutually exclusive with normalcy, unless we're talking a proposed mandate (which isn't specified) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another shot at the same basic question, here from YouGov/Yahoo. A worse result for the 'normalcy' side than Echelon, though 'normalcy' still leads the pandemic https://t.co/kr1a9008uN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rickperlstein @davidshor @xenocryptsite not sure i see the relevance, unless you're arguing that labor was still a force for 'durable left wing' political power in the 1970s, if it were not for the effort to break them (my argument is that it was not) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @xenocryptsite to the original post's point though, the question is whether there would have been more working class demand for focus on economic issues if there had *not* been a successful labor movement, and i think the answer there is probably 'yes' — PolitiTweet.org