Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 12, 2022

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Thu Feb 03 17:16:23 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm seeing a fair amount of fighting over this tweet. Whether it's right depends on the meaning of 'very substantial,' ofc, and it's hard to assign probabilities to a lot of this But it is at least a real possibility at this point. Let's work through it https://t.co/cTW5VpDQN9 — PolitiTweet.org

There is a very substantial chance that Dems can keep the House with an R+1 vote in 2022. https://t.co/bEeSib0BAl

Posted Feb. 3, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EricLevitz @mattyglesias @MattBruenig (eric adams is an exception in that regard; it'll be interesting to see how he plays out as a model, esp since black voters are really the only democratic constituency with the potential to nudge the party in a less elite direction) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's start by penciling in the likely-conservative outcome in every state but PA, NC, OH, FL, AL (I say conservative bc I'll assume, say, a 1-1 split in NH). If you do that, you get 190 seats that voted more for Biden than the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2022