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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ForecasterEnten @amyewalter are you really going to rename me from summer to fall — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ForecasterEnten @amyewalter this is really all i have to add to the matter https://t.co/iELNGXsB4a — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ForecasterEnten @amyewalter mmm no. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @Redistrict: Think about how this race looked 2, 4 or 6 months ago and then realize we have 5 more months until IA. This thing is going… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I continue to be fascinated by live phone v. online trends in the president's approval rating this year. This, Trump's done better in live polls--reversing a four year trend. And the president's ratings are totally flat in online polls, despite real or even big movement in live. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Two polling methods, two months, two theories of Trump's position heading into reelection https://t.co/JqfxQACoXO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende agreed — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SeanTrende five options: -publish; -alter/herd; -spike; -replicate, publish both; -replicate, publish second. spike/herd is bad. but the last one seems debatable (assuming we're talking possible 1 in 20 type outliers, where 1 poll will probably confirm, not clinton+3 v. trump+1) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Trump's approval rating was +11 in our final NC-9 poll in October (R+1 in the House race), so this is probably a place where he could do some good for the Republican https://t.co/DFxwJRJXtm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
If you followed our 'live polling' project, you know there can be a lot of movement in interviews 299-500 (and beyond!), but that 298 isn't irrelevant either — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @JakeSherman: Wisconsin GOP Rep. Sean Duffy is resigning from Congress, per several sources. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @Neil_Irwin: Am I doing this right? https://t.co/09zryVPx8S — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Eight days later, the US-WI gap in Civiqs--and indeed, the over all Trump E.C. advantage--is at 9 points, the highest it's been. I suppose we've learned that these estimates are fairly volatile--more volatile than the smoothish trends. But interesting https://t.co/tACdHiK4Q0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @nickconfessore: People who conceive of journalism purely as a form of political messaging — or prefer it that way — have a particularly… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
It is possible that this is all because of the mercator projection — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
US territories, current and and maybe possibly future, by population Puerto Rico 3.2million DC 702k Guam 166k US Virgin Islands 105k Greenland 56k American Samoa 56k Norther Mariana Islands 55k — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
At a mere 56k people, Greenland would be in a three-way tie for least populous US territory with American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
this should have probably been my #124124 thought, but i went right to 'canada would be pretty surrounded' — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ChangePolls that wasn't a complete list of errors--you'll probably need to redo the whole thing. and to be clear, the referenced, excluded polls were places where we both polled — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ChangePolls --you're missing the argument. 2016 vote calibration does not help you in a primary. --in all seriousness, i don't see how you can expect me to engage in earnest when you've posted an analysis that is riddled with inaccuracies, omissions and mischaracterizes our results. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ChangePolls going forward, my biggest question is about your reliance on past presidential vote choice. that's a great way to get in the ball park in the house results, but if you've been dependent on it you might be in danger in a dem primary. it's a question for most online polls tbh — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ChangePolls anyway i don't think your record in these districts is bad. 4.5 pts or so is a fine performance in house races. but the inaccuracies and omissions are tough to stomach, especially since they overwhelmingly go your direction — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ChangePolls an incomplete list: you have MI08 as 6 pt error for us and 1 for you, it's 3 or so for both. i find this hard to understand. You don't include WI01 and NY01, where you have double digit errors. IL14 was basically our most accurate late poll and you have it as a 2 pt error, so on — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@ChangePolls i assume this wasn't intentional, as you're calling attention to it and showed your work, but: --you omitted several polls where we both polled and you did poorly --there are substantial factual errors in the tallies you do include --with 538 data, avg error is nyt 3.4 v. 4.6 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
It's really hard to know what to make of some of these new online polls https://t.co/zLxRyfcdSF — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Change Research could be right. Could be. But last month they had Buttigieg leading and at 25% in Iowa. I think skepticism is warranted.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @ForecasterEnten: Change Research could be right. Could be. But last month they had Buttigieg leading and at 25% in Iowa. I think skepti… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
In OH/TX, for ex, the state pages make it seem like Trump's approval was always positive there. Presumably their model has, to be colloquial about it, changed its mind about the distribution of Trump's support in a modestly abrupt way. Curious about how it works @DrewLinzer — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Three days later, Civiqs' approval tracker now has Trump above water in many of these states, with no change in the national number. Even more interestingly, the state trends are back-fitted such that it looks like it never happened! https://t.co/RwD4f98GFB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The Civiqs national approval tracker--which is fairly novel and has produced some reasonable results--seems like it… https://t.co/GNKGvIOLgc
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @NBCNews: Remains of a human-sized penguin have been discovered in New Zealand, scientists announced. The penguin was more than 5 feet… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
RT @Uncrewed: As requested by @davidshor, here's a map showing the 2016 Presidential & current party registration loyalty. It's easy to see… — PolitiTweet.org
