Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @albrgr for ex (there's plenty): https://t.co/Wb2Vwad2gD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @albrgr [ie: he was absolutely a peddler of the 'dangerous misinterpretation' he blames in this article] — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @albrgr unfortunately, i think this has made it harder for ruy to be entirely honest about his 'how i got here' tale. https://t.co/DSKAlWK3lo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @albrgr judis, otoh, did not see the obama-era elections as a vindication and basically renounced the theory by '12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @albrgr judis, otoh, did not think see the obama-era elections as a vindication and had basically renounced the theory by '12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @albrgr same, though one twist here is that ruy did go in on the obama-era as a vindication of the more progressive version of the EDM, where demographic change allowed for a more full throatily progressive majority, before events just kind of promptly proved it wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

interestingly, i went to green river college for a field trip on earth day when i was in middle school. we learned about salmon life cycle, etc. https://t.co/6SGaq8DkfE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

interestingly, i went on a field trip to grcc to learn about the salmon life cycle in middle school--and it was probably on 4/20 https://t.co/6SGaq8DkfE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@albrgr and it did not really imagine that the democrats could have this kind of problem with working class voters. it dismisses basically every unfavorable trend as a product of clinton scandals, assumes WV is still lean D, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@albrgr idk if i'd quite go that far, but i do not think that it resembles its obama-era caricature--the version where demographic changes yield a progressive majority. it supposes a fairly centrist democratic party of the clinton-gore variety — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer i twitter searched 'kyle lewis' after his first PA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@albrgr have you read 'emerging democratic majority' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer he should clearly be in AAA :( — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: McCarthy stepped on a rake with a denial - question now is how his conference and Trump react — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @rickhasen: The Harvard Law Review Forum @HarvLRev has posted my new Essay on the most urgent topic facing U.S. democracy, "Identifying… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jburnmurdoch: NEW: for the first time in the pandemic, a Covid infection now carries less mortality risk than a flu infection in Englan… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @rickhasen: #ELB: “Opinion | The Other Way Trump Could Steal the White House in 2024” https://t.co/NjcX695eem — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll be on a flight on Thursday (airline doesn't require masks) so maybe I'll do a hard count for comparison — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Would you wear a mask on a flight today (if you weren't required to do so)? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @gelliottmorris it's interesting and consistent across n=3: net-5 pts better approval than horse race. i've often wondered whether there's a weird post-voting interview effect, where people who just voted against the incumbent feel inclined to be more positive in subsequent evaluations — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @gelliottmorris there is a little bit of a streak where presidents seeking reelection get higher approval in the exits than pre-election polls, regardless of poll error (obama 54/45 in '12; bush 53/46 in '04). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @gelliottmorris there is a little bit of a streak where presidents seeking reelection get higher approval in the exits than pre-election polls, regardless of poll error (obama 54/45 in '12; bush 53/46 in '04) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @awprokop: From ARP to BBB to For the People Act, covering the Dem agenda in 2021 was one of the strangest experiences I've had as a jou… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Kysarcius: @DanCassino @xenocryptsite One of my favorite historical Gallup polls: in 1948 only 8% of college grads could place the 10 b… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 b is a common view of why 'majorities' crumble: parties exhaust whatever 'political capital' they gain from favorable events by embracing policies that set them back to status quo ante. what would be unique here is the speed--ie: before even a single election win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 b is a common view of why 'majorities' crumble: parties exhaust whatever 'political capital' they gain from favorable events by embracing policies set them back to status quo ante. what would be unique here is the speed that this happens--ie: before even a single election win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 yeah, no doubt that it's basically cancelled out. i just don't think there's as obvious of a theoretical reason why that's inevitable, unless a) fundamentals favor it; b) parties optimize on ideology>electoral gains, all the way up until appeasing activists threatens viability — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 i think the 'covid/ses' effect, as you call it, is much more interesting. ex ante, i thought it was entirely possible that those conditions yield a political earthquake. it didn't, and i'm not willing to assume that's what we should have expected based on the fundamentals — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 many of these 'realignments' correspond with unique nominees who barely won highly contested primaries, and it makes sense to me that those effects cancel out (ie: race effects maybe wouldn't cancel out if jesse jackson won the dem primary in '08, but he wouldn't have won) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NYTScience: The huge volcanic explosion near Tonga generated something that scientists hadn’t seen in more than half a century: a plane… — PolitiTweet.org