Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked July 18, 2022

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Sat Apr 16 14:26:39 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 yeah, no doubt that it's basically cancelled out. i just don't think there's as obvious of a theoretical reason why that's inevitable, unless a) fundamentals favor it; b) parties optimize on ideology>electoral gains, all the way up until appeasing activists threatens viability — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 i think the 'covid/ses' effect, as you call it, is much more interesting. ex ante, i thought it was entirely possible that those conditions yield a political earthquake. it didn't, and i'm not willing to assume that's what we should have expected based on the fundamentals — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 b is a common view of why 'majorities' crumble: parties exhaust whatever 'political capital' they gain from favorable events by embracing policies set them back to status quo ante. what would be unique here is the speed that this happens--ie: before even a single election win — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2022 Deleted after 16 seconds Just a Typo