Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

6) I see a lot of DNC conspiracy in my feed. The DNC hasn't reached out to me about our polling plans, and we wouldn't tell them anyway. I'd guess the DNC issued criteria with little to no knowledge of the upcoming polls, and probably hoping there would be more than there was — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

5) I think it is worth noting that December is also at the end of a budget cycle. Costs were probably higher than expected (were in our case) and impeachment created demand for additional polls. Easy enough to see an organization or two making a late cut here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) A good Iowa caucus poll, I should note, is pretty costly. Iowa Dem caucus goers are like 10% of RVs in the state, so you need a big smaple. Those CNN/DMR/Selzer polls sometimes breach N=3000; ours was N=1500 with a 50% D oversample, and that's only bc we're off the voter file — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) The cost of telephone polls--and virtually all qualifying polls are telephone polls--has skyrocketed. The pres of SSRS, which fields many of the national polls out there, said at AAPOR last year that a standard national poll costs over 100k. As a result, fewer polls this year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Impeachment, not Iowa, was the most important story during this period. The case for spending on national polling, or at least non-iowa polling, is better than it ordinarily would be at this point in the race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) In general, the holidays--both thanksgiving and Christmas--are a poor time to poll. There's usually a bit of a lull during those periods. This doesn't explain the total absence of polling; the early Dec. period is a natural target, for instance. But it's a factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been interesting to see my Twitter 'replies' on the amount of polling recently. Some anger. Some conspiracy theories. Some genuine questions, and so on. So here are a few thoughts on why there have been so few. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dominicknero: all my pacific north westerners, which is the best seat? https://t.co/cfPdvJidBx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende and maybe slotkin is the closest you can get to having it all! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(One interesting twist, in my view, is the high-stakes specials that could be set up in WI/MN with Baldwin/Klob, who might otherwise be the favorites of this group "on paper") — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most are also fairly moderate, so it sets up two fairly distinct but I think defensible and coherent visions of a Biden VP pick. There are other options of course, and the primary/polls will shape the calculus, but I'd guess those are the two major directions they would consider — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One route--a progressive black woman like Abrams or Harris--has been discussed extensively and for good reasons. "Midwestern woman" will also be very on the table, esp since there are many choices like Klob, Whitmer, Duckworth, Baldwin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's early to say which of these goals will seem most important to any candidate in June. And campaigns will also have to grapple with the strengths and weaknesses of the possible choices, whether they 'fit' the goal or not. So I think a lot of people will be in the discussion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside folks, there are lots of different things you can do with a VP pick. You can try and ameliorate a personal weakness, you can try and heal a divided party, you can try and reinforce your message, you can target a state or demographic, you can try and do no harm, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

elissa slotkin and elise stefanik are different people fyi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wouldn't surprise me to see Slotkin in the VP discussion for Biden or Buttigieg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ConsDemo did you un-register to vote last time you moved? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2010, the census found 100k fewer people in Detroit than the ACS estimated in 2009. Now it was probably a year of accelerated population decline, but it's mainly measurement error — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One estimate, for instance , puts the population in Detroit about 30k lower than the census https://t.co/blYLrWAVBs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Milwaukee and Detroit, the central city is part of a larger county, and the intradecadal census pop estimates--already imperfect--are particularly meh at subcounty level. It's fairly likely that the loss in the city of Detroit is larger than the census est — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The extent that the decline in Detroit/Milwaukee turnout can be attributed to pop loss, not just the decline in turnout rate among black voters, is not going to be 100% clear until the census, given the limits of intradecadal subcounty pop ests https://t.co/T3GVhdmC9i — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And hey, maybe this wouldn't have happened if the GOP had stuck with Bush/Rubio/Romney-style conservatism rather than Trump populism. Now that they've pivoted, I don't see much reason why they wouldn't make more gains — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You'd think! I thought. Yet, Dems keep losing ground among no col whites/rural white southerners, even as they fall into the low teens or single digits w those groups. There's a long, long way to go in PA/MI/WI, where >40% of Dems are still no col whites https://t.co/j7pqZN5iny — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But if you're ranking things to watch in the Midwestern states, demographics are pretty low on the list. It's basically "if everything else is totally unchanged or canceled out, then demographics might barely win it for Democrats." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But if you're ranking things to watch in the Midwestern states, demographics are pretty low on the list. It's basically "if everything else is irrelevant or canceled out then demographics might barely win it for Democrats." — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now if Dems could slow their losses in their old base and maybe make some inroads with the old-industrial era mainline protestant Yankee vote, as they did in the 2004-2012 period, then maybe demographics would allow them to inch forward at this snails pace. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why? The Democrats have been slowly losing their old, industrial-era working class base. To this point, it's outweighed demographic shifts, Dem gains in the burbs, and whatever else. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yet the long term trends cut the opposite way of the demographic shifts in these same states https://t.co/yA29fv1J5c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if any of Biden/Sanders/Buttigieg led in Iowa. But I feel like Biden's position in Iowa is often overlooked and better than it seems, having survived a Pete surge that I thought would fairly threatening to him there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's trendline adjustment gives Biden the lead now in Iowa. It wouldn't surprise me at all if that was the case https://t.co/QHWBKdLuVA — PolitiTweet.org