Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 30, 2020

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Sat Jan 04 15:16:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) A good Iowa caucus poll, I should note, is pretty costly. Iowa Dem caucus goers are like 10% of RVs in the state, so you need a big smaple. Those CNN/DMR/Selzer polls sometimes breach N=3000; ours was N=1500 with a 50% D oversample, and that's only bc we're off the voter file — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) The cost of telephone polls--and virtually all qualifying polls are telephone polls--has skyrocketed. The pres of SSRS, which fields many of the national polls out there, said at AAPOR last year that a standard national poll costs over 100k. As a result, fewer polls this year — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

5) I think it is worth noting that December is also at the end of a budget cycle. Costs were probably higher than expected (were in our case) and impeachment created demand for additional polls. Easy enough to see an organization or two making a late cut here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 4, 2020 Hibernated