Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @markberman: roses are read violets are down the hall https://t.co/WULDEzgvaN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't know if these patterns of support by likelihood of voting still hold today. For all we know, Sanders gains in the Selzer poll could be due to his voters becoming likelier to say they'll vote. But these are substantial effects, regardless of who benefits now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This latter result, with the tight second screen, is closest methodologically to, say, Selzer's screen. And indeed, she had Sanders/Biden at 16/15 two weeks later. The result after the 1st screen (no second screen), is more like Emerson, which had Biden/Sanders in 1st kn Dec.. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many pollsters have a tougher second screen, particularly late in race. They often give 0 weight to anyone who doesn't say 'very likely' or 'almost certain' to caucus. In our poll, this would have cost Sanders (our Oct. result in par.) W 21 (22) Bu 19 (18) B 16 (17) S 16 (19) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Oct poll, we had two LV ?s. First, we asked whether they'd probably caucus for Ds, R, or wouldn't caucus. If D caucus, asked how likely to caucus, and down-weighted less likely voters. The vote after 1st screen, then 2nd was W 22 --> 22 S 20 --> 19 Bi 18 --> 17 Bu 16 --> 18 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Going back to our Iowa poll from October, here's what the result would have been if supporters of candidates who since dropped out were reassigned to their second choice Warren 22 --> 23 Sanders 19 --> 20 Buttigieg 18 --> 19 Biden 17 --> 18 Klobuchar 4 --> 5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @benbbaldwin: I’m ready to see Russell Wilson unleashed while he’s still in his prime. I’m ready to see him in an offense that uses all… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: Trump job performance: 48% approve of how he is doing as prez, 49% disapprove. In Dec, it was 47% approve, 50% disapprove. I… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: In new Marquette Law School Poll, Biden leads Trump 49% to 45%; it’s Sanders 47% vs. Trump 46%; Trump 48% vs. Warren 45%; Tr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All of this is broadly consistent with what happened in '18, when the black share of the electorate fell in the Midwest battlegrounds (compared to both 14/16), while the Hispanic turnout, let alone share of the electorate, was quite high by midterm standards — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Hispanic share of the electorate, on the other hand, seems poised to increase. But the states where that helps Dems most tend to be the states where Clinton was farther from victory — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be a little more direct about what that means: I think there's a real case that the the black share of the electorate could drop even more in 2020 in some of these states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, Dems probably won non-voters in '16 in all of these states. On the other hand, I don't really see signs that the black turnout rate is poised to increase more than the rest of the electorate. If anything, I might argue the opposite https://t.co/y2FysBC8dy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Random fact of the day: there are (slightly) more men than women under age 30 among registered voters in Iowa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Morning Consult's pro-Steyer house effect is fascinating to me. https://t.co/3YINKJ5LRO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden couldn’t really dream up a much better day than leading polls of IA and NH as the Warren-Sanders front finally heats up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: Russian agents have been hacking into Burisma, possibly looking for the kind of incriminating material the president an… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

surprised by how many people disagree strongly on this; i'm not surprised there's disagreement, it's quite a move, but i would have expected that even the people who disagreed would have thought that the case the other way was pretty reasonable. apparently not! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

surprised by how many people disagree strongly on this; i would have expected that even the people who disagreed would have the case and thought it reasonable, but apparently not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

time to fire pete carroll. sad to say it, but i don't really see any way around it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: As a matter of policy, Monmouth releases information on key demographics (both weighted and unweighted) for each poll. We… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

His chances in NH seem consistently overlooked to me, perhaps bc Bernie won last time and people just give it to him, or perhaps bc both Warren/Sanders are from neighboring states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden also appears to claim a lead in a new Franklin Piece poll of New Hampshire Biden 26 Sanders 22 Warren 18 https://t.co/2q5Rq9ghEY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A bit of the difference between the Monmouth poll and the Selzer poll might be the sampling frame. Based data from the Times/Siena poll of Iowa, it might cost Sanders a couple of points in Monmouth https://t.co/fKb7rBUiGM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: Here's a tease. Booker had enough support in this poll that we were able to reassign his voters to their second choice… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @iamcardib: I do feel like if I go back to school and focus up I can be part of Congress.I deadass have sooo much ideas that make sense… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It’s almost like the Seahawks are better when they don’t hand the ball to *checks notes* their out-of-retirement fifth string running back and let Wilson do his thing smh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

also happening is that i'm turning the AC on in january — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

pretty sure i played this game in madden 2000 or something — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So what are some of the comparable playoff upsets for 1 seeds at all, let alone v 6? — PolitiTweet.org