Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 1, 2020

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Thu Jan 16 13:35:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Oct poll, we had two LV ?s. First, we asked whether they'd probably caucus for Ds, R, or wouldn't caucus. If D caucus, asked how likely to caucus, and down-weighted less likely voters. The vote after 1st screen, then 2nd was W 22 --> 22 S 20 --> 19 Bi 18 --> 17 Bu 16 --> 18 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Going back to our Iowa poll from October, here's what the result would have been if supporters of candidates who since dropped out were reassigned to their second choice Warren 22 --> 23 Sanders 19 --> 20 Buttigieg 18 --> 19 Biden 17 --> 18 Klobuchar 4 --> 5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Many pollsters have a tougher second screen, particularly late in race. They often give 0 weight to anyone who doesn't say 'very likely' or 'almost certain' to caucus. In our poll, this would have cost Sanders (our Oct. result in par.) W 21 (22) Bu 19 (18) B 16 (17) S 16 (19) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 16, 2020 Hibernated