Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I'm concerned about is that urban results are overrepresented in the data that we, the campaigns, and perhaps the IADP have to this point. If so, some fairly clear consequences for who looks strong or weak. https://t.co/ecI4WaNXNs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also, if they only have half of results by 4pm today I think that at least raises the possibility that we never get them all, at least not without some asterisks (like returns with irreconcilable inconsistencies across results) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well well well. The needle may yet have something to say https://t.co/qlPtc5ozhm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @reidepstein: NEWS: Troy Price, Iowa Dem chairman, just told 2020 Dem campaigns to expect results by 4pm CT today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ContentedIndie https://t.co/wTBmSEkA5W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I occasionally see tweets about getting the results later today and I don't really see any reason to make that assumption, btw (though it could happen, and i hope so) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Meanwhile, Trump approval at 49 in Gallup among adults, the highest of his presidency https://t.co/Vqe4Tfue4y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For instance, if we applied the validated turnout from 2018 to our poll (ie: 89% of 'almost certain to vote' did so), you'd get a turnout of 285k in our poll. But I have no idea whether validated turnout by likelihood in the midterms like past IA caucuses. I'd guess not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, I think the electorate in the entrance poll looks very very close to ours and it sounds like first alignment… https://t.co/hj5lWLDhbs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As response rates decline, one possibility is that the polls are getting filled up with more and more political, enthusiastic voters--even controlling for their vote history. If that's true, you'd see increased self-reported intention to vote in polls, without an increase IRL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, it's pretty meh for a Bernie-style 'change the electorate' electability case. And it does raise some qu… https://t.co/O07rrVw9Qk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW, undecided voters are less likely to vote, even in regularly scheduled elections, in our polling data over the years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I suppose the best case for Democrats is that the many undecided/not firmly decided voters didn't go through with c… https://t.co/G8QwLJggdY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But if Buttigieg is closer on first alignment, it could easily be from outlying, rural, older precincts where the… https://t.co/Nyocz15miO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm inclined to agree https://t.co/7ipmVxROhr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@harrisj I mean even I'm a little deflated about losing much of a month on estimating these Iowa results by precinc… https://t.co/dcErKcyTBS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Based on Sanders/Buttigieg memos, there’s virtually no question Sanders won the most caucus support in terms of *initial* p… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside I just feel really terrible for all these people. People put months, even years of work into these cauc… https://t.co/A2EnPdK9SY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Instead, they just added more steps on the old system, jerry-rigging a new, overly complex caucus that faced a number of new challenges in terms of reporting and a possible popular vote-SDE split without any real justification. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These logic of these new changes, to my mind, would generally push Iowa Democrats toward adopting a GOP like caucus… https://t.co/wRvH8r6QlL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So the requirement to bind the result to pledged delegates obviated the justification for using SDEs, while at the… https://t.co/z8J528DChE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, Iowa was now being compelled to release tabulated vote counts for the first time. To my knowledg… https://t.co/BbwI0VlFCr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

After '16, the DNC required caucuses to bind their results to precinct caucuses, rather than state delegates. They took it, and bound the results to the SDEs. But SDEs--an artificial construct--only needed to exist because results *weren't* bound to the precinct caucus — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Iowa's arcane process, after all, existed for a reason. The precinct caucuses were the start of a process to select… https://t.co/5R7vxGskTb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A lot of the changes since '16 in Iowa probably contributed to the mess last night. But one had the potential to ba… https://t.co/VdYlBdGHyF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well we’re suspending the needle at this point but we’re so thankful for your support and we’re on our way to New Hampshire — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, 50 or whatever sample precincts aren't perfect, and don't account for realignment/SDEs. But it's probably the best measure we have — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We don't know the result, but I'm pretty sure that entrance polls were adjusted to match sample precinct results (n… https://t.co/spbBpmTDNd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

She's going to help you. She still has a shot to nail the result! https://t.co/RhCABHb1qL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

we're going to find out that someone made the font on the caucus app too large and pete buttigeig's name didn't appear — PolitiTweet.org