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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 17, 2020

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Tue Feb 04 14:38:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, I think the electorate in the entrance poll looks very very close to ours and it sounds like first alignment… https://t.co/hj5lWLDhbs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As response rates decline, one possibility is that the polls are getting filled up with more and more political, enthusiastic voters--even controlling for their vote history. If that's true, you'd see increased self-reported intention to vote in polls, without an increase IRL — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For instance, if we applied the validated turnout from 2018 to our poll (ie: 89% of 'almost certain to vote' did so), you'd get a turnout of 285k in our poll. But I have no idea whether validated turnout by likelihood in the midterms like past IA caucuses. I'd guess not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 4, 2020 Hibernated