Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This isn't necessarily a crazy level of churn, fwiw, so I'd be a little cautious about interpreting this as a sign of mass strategic voting In TX, 14% of '20 D primary voters cast R ballots in the R primary in '22. 6% of '18 D primary voters did as well https://t.co/XavyLIlhfr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections turner is 43% of precincts reporting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections turner is 43% reporting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections i'm sure there's a market for power users. but i doubt we'll publish data that we don't always understand ourselves. we're not getting precincts reporting in a consistent or consistently useful way. it's just not 2018 anymore, unfortunately — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections in PA, for example, the AP 'precinct reporting' field was identical to their estimated turnout number. in some states, this appears to vary by county. in others, it's like we're back in 2012 and it would work fine if we published it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections precincts reporting isn't 'dead' but we don't know where it is alive. in some states, the 'precincts reporting' figure that we're getting isn't what you want it to be. we don't have the auxiliary data to understand it until we see it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @reidepstein: David Perdue on Stacey Abrams at his closing rally in Dunwoody, Ga.: “She is demeaning her own race.” — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @CBSNews how many mail ballots left? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: NEW: 💥 The rupture is complete Pence tells me he’s open to running v Trump in ‘24 - will go “where we’re called” - and hea… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: This is, by far, the most Trump has spent on another politician. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: NEWS: Trump transferred $2 million to various pro-David Perdue and anti-Brian Kemp efforts in Georgia, four times as m… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The same thing can be said for the 'democracy' issue: it may or may not affect the generic ballot, but I am quite open to the idea that individual stop-the-steal-type GOP candidates could be materially punished for it in certain states — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The same thing can be said for the 'democracy' issue: it may not affect the generic ballot, but I am quite open to the idea that individual stop-the-steal-type GOP candidates can be materially punished for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One additional point: the effect on individual races may prove to be more important than its effect on the national political environment, if abortion becomes especially salient in places due to extreme candidates or state policy stakes https://t.co/q82UHlPRhW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley in general, we would not expect 'partisan nonresponse bias,' let alone one based on the over-engagement of democratic primary voters, to correlate strongly with GOP support by precinct — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley i'm not wiling to go too far on a limb and declare this to be so, but in all seriousness the geographic pattern in our data actually is a lot more consistent with the 'shy trump voter' theory or even lying trump voter theory than nonresponse bias — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley (and is entirely consistent with this geographic pattern, at least on the scale of our data in '16) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley we didn't have too many third party voters. but i do think parsing this is a little difficult, since we're getting into the territory where modest measurement error is potentially a very significant factor — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley biden was also up 51-18 among '16 minor party voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley unweighted, biden led 94-3 among clinton voters across all surveys; trump led 88-6 among trump voters. weighting moves it to 92-3 on biden side; unchanged for trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley yes, quite a bit--main source of biden's gains was self-reported vote flipping, though obviously they're small in number https://t.co/olAsCQgqYp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley https://t.co/EJm0aAAZGz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley all that said, most of biden's improvement over '16 in our polling was due to self-reported flippers https://t.co/olAsCQgqYp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley there's a little bit of truth to that, but really not much--could just be measurement error--and an order of magnitude less than '20 https://t.co/G5zUDqIEmx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley more often, i suspect folks wound up getting to a seeming unbiased answer by weighting to recalled '16 vote and grossly underrepresenting a dem-leaning didn't vote/don't recall — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley conversely, wound up getting to a seeming unbiased answer by weighting to recalled '16 vote while grossly underrepresenting didn't vote/don't recall — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @svzwood: christianity's statcast percentiles not looking good this season — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes on average, our self-reported '16 vote was 3 or 4 pts right of the '16 result so i don't think that's the issue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley much farther right than our final polls? https://t.co/84eA5Wg6Xd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley i did not (we don't use it; i just looking to see how it would have worked). do you expect those targets to be meaningfully to the right of the '16 result in the key states? — PolitiTweet.org