Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2022

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Wed May 18 23:07:05 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley in general, we would not expect 'partisan nonresponse bias,' let alone one based on the over-engagement of democratic primary voters, to correlate strongly with GOP support by precinct — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @valeriecbradley i'm not wiling to go too far on a limb and declare this to be so, but in all seriousness the geographic pattern in our data actually is a lot more consistent with the 'shy trump voter' theory or even lying trump voter theory than nonresponse bias — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One additional point: the effect on individual races may prove to be more important than its effect on the national political environment, if abortion becomes especially salient in places due to extreme candidates or state policy stakes https://t.co/q82UHlPRhW — PolitiTweet.org

Seeing a lot of this sort of sentiment. "Well, there's been no big poll shift after the Roe leak, which means no bi… https://t.co/LdltVmCuc3

Posted May 19, 2022