Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @nbeaudrot @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann the GOP's structural advantage is significant, but the democrats have control of the chamber today for a reason! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @nbeaudrot @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann no one was interested in weighing in on this, but i think it's very important in trying to address this question. there are two parties, after all, and the gop's conduct in power will really shape whether they give up the senate during their time in power https://t.co/j5EEgDyS06 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan i try to distinguish between popularism and shorism, personally! in any case, no, i do not think going back to 2012 yields very much at this point. we've tweeted about this before though so i won't belabor the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @BrendanNyhan @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann do you expect that the next GOP president is going to be popular — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan but you can agree that's not popularism, right? a poll-driven mute button on progressive excess doesn't really offer anything in this regard, much in the same way that the RNC autopsy post '12 doesn't propose Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan but you can agree that's not popularism, right? a poll-driven mute button on progressive excess doesn't really offer in this regard, much in the same way that the RNC autopsy post '12 doesn't propose Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan if you have proposed a realignment-level shift in dem positioning--comparable to the trump '16 departure from romney '12--i am not clear on what it is or what it looks like — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan i know i've said this before, but popularism does not propose a messaging change on anything like this scale--a fundamental shift in party emphasis on positioning — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kwcollins: Today in "people are galvanized to support the status quo by threat of change" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @DanAncona @davidshor @gelliottmorris i do wonder about the flip side of status quo bias: selection bias. the kinds of issues with 90% support and *aren't* enacted into law by a legislature may be exactly those issues that would not sustain 90% support in an election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@karlbykarlsmith @wesyang @mattyglesias i suppose the analogous move would be committing to overturning heller / a court ruling that there's no individual right to keep/bear arms unconnected from service in a militia, and then having state trigger laws to ban guns — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @VaughnHillyard: Wyoming’s @Liz_Cheney formally files/announces re-election bid: “We have much left to do & big challenges in the year… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, Texas and Florida really drive that shift--they go from 2 to 14 seats, and they all count as competitive under this definition. Democrats' ability to win in those states every-so-often would be the key for them to capitalize on a proportional Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So TLDR: the chamber would remain biased toward Republicans--almost exactly as biased as the Electoral College. But Democrats would benefit from a much larger pool of competitive seats in the big presidential battlegrounds, even if they still tilt-GOP (PA, MI, FL, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And there would be a much larger group of seats for Democrats to target. Today, there are 56 plausibly competitive seats for Democrats--those that voted for Biden or within 10 points of the national vote. There would be 73 such seats under a proportional Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So the Democrats would still have a harder time taking the chamber than winning the popular vote. But they probably gain a little more than the shift in the mean-median gap makes it seem: The 25 Biden states would now be worth 56 seats, up from 50. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Redoing this, the Democrats would see some modest gains in a proportional Senate. The median proportional Senate seat would have been Wisconsin, just as it was in the Electoral College. IRL, the median Senate seat is GA (if Dems hold VP tiebreak) or NC (if GOP holds VP) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's because every state would presumably be entitled to one Senator. If there are 100 members, many small states are still getting excessive representation with their one Senator. IE: Wyoming would be 1% of a 100 member Senate v. 0.6% in today's E.C. and 0.17% of non-DC pop — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And oddly, an explicitly 'proportional Senate' is potentially quite a bit less proportional than the Electoral College, even though the E.C. includes the explicitly non-proportional Senate in the number of electoral votes by state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I did look at this once. It wasn't as different as you might expect -- a 'proportional' Senate is still quite biased toward the GOP, for the same reason that the Electoral College is quite biased against Dems despite being more proportional than the Senate https://t.co/v5QYwgcUs5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Just days before the recent mass shootings in Texas and New York, both committed by 18-year-olds, a federal appeals court stru… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @RStateBState @KatzOnEarth @davidshor @jaycaspiankang @DickidDaveson @GregBenage @jonathanchait @BrendanNyhan @cwarshaw @johnmsides @jon_m_rob though if 'strategic retirement' is adopted by both parties -- and imposed as early as < age 70 -- then you lock in GOP control of the SCOTUS in perpetuity, don't you? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonathanchait @davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides @jon_m_rob could be, but the results of these initiatives were more closely correlated with Trump support than GOP congressional races! And these data suggest that a national referendum on gun control like CA/ME/NV would have lost the popular vote, even while Clinton won — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides have you published the dataset of estimates and results? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides oh i see; didn't understand the y-axis properly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides are you saying that you don't include that data point on the chart because you don't think it's sufficiently close to the question-wording in the survey? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides maybe i don't understand the earlier plots, but i don't see that maine data point on there fwiw. anyway, i think those '16 results are plainly affected by a somewhat different phenomenon than status quo bias, though maybe that explains why y < x https://t.co/1m4D29nneU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides @jon_m_rob curious what @cwarshaw and @jon_m_rob estimated likely public support for those initiatives in ME/NV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides @jon_m_rob though given that i see no data points in that general zone on the plot, perhaps they think background checks shouldn't have been very popular in ME/NV? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @BrendanNyhan @jaycaspiankang @cwarshaw @johnmsides @jon_m_rob status quo bias seems like a plausible, partial but ultimately incomplete explanation for the failure of gun control initiatives that purportedly have >80% support (unless there's a convincing argument why status quo bias would be unusually pronounced in gun control legislation) — PolitiTweet.org