Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 23, 2022

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Thu May 26 13:30:07 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So the Democrats would still have a harder time taking the chamber than winning the popular vote. But they probably gain a little more than the shift in the mean-median gap makes it seem: The 25 Biden states would now be worth 56 seats, up from 50. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Redoing this, the Democrats would see some modest gains in a proportional Senate. The median proportional Senate seat would have been Wisconsin, just as it was in the Electoral College. IRL, the median Senate seat is GA (if Dems hold VP tiebreak) or NC (if GOP holds VP) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And there would be a much larger group of seats for Democrats to target. Today, there are 56 plausibly competitive seats for Democrats--those that voted for Biden or within 10 points of the national vote. There would be 73 such seats under a proportional Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 26, 2022