Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Consider this: In '18, the Democrats gained about 5 pts over Clinton's '16 margin in the popular vote. If Biden was up 12, hypothetically (!), that's another 5 points further. That's enough to draw another tier of states to the brink of competitiveness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I've said a few times, I think we have to be pretty open-minded about what the map might look if we're seriously looking at a double-digit Biden advantage, and South Carolina is one of several states that's at least somewhat interesting in this environment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the Times/Siena national survey, registered voters nationwide narrow opposed removing statues of Confederate officials by a 6 point margin, 44 to 50 percent *split sample, so wider margin of error https://t.co/KjxEuCaPlx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Using standard methods, the Times/Siena polls would find only a slight LV/RV gap in Trump's favor. And all six battlegrounds have mail absentee voting. But if those folks didn't vote, Biden's lead would narrow by 3 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

8 percent of Biden supporters told us they would be too uncomfortable to vote in-person in the Times/Siena poll, compared to just 2 percent of Trump supporters https://t.co/DSxX0eLcrN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Indeed. And a rare, white state that trended left in 16 as a result https://t.co/5rTSLikOvY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I’m not saying trump will lose KS or something, or that he’ll lose by 14. But a world where he can trail by 12-14 nationally may be one where he can trail a serious KS poll on occasion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Look, we’ve got high quality polls routinely showing Biden up 12+, w preposterous gains among col plus whites. We need to be very open minded about what that means by state — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BCAppelbaum after they've tried everything else. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@varadmehta i have no idea how anyone could look at all that's changed in american life and politics over the last four months and assert that someone would have to be disingenuous to state that things could change over the next four months. total lunacy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are four months to go, and it's important to remember that the race has changed before and it will change again. It is just as important to remember that incumbents who trail by double-digits with a -15 approval rating are very serious underdogs https://t.co/BbSNUoLczP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like the Times/Siena poll, you've got Biden all but eliminating Trump's lead with white voters (Trump+2) and Biden claiming a 30 point lead among white college grads, which is just an order of magnitude beyond what we've seen in prior elections or earlier polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+12 in Monmouth, 53-41. On average, Biden's led by 11 points in live interview national surveys over the last month https://t.co/VmiPfrdAo8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Meet the supporters Trump has lost. My colleague @clairecm talks to the Times/Siena respondents who said they supported Trump in '16, but now they say there's not really any chance they'll vote for him again https://t.co/rqOQRc4yi7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+12, 53-41 in Suffolk. This had been one of the president's better national live interview pollsters, including a Trump lead in Dec. and a positive approval rating one year ago https://t.co/wB5zyXK9hH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This 8 point shift matches a lot of what we've seen from other high-quality polls, but there's one reason to take it even more seriously: it's based on a panel. So the change here isn't just due to sampling, but respondents changing their minds https://t.co/5W0MEAb7Ms — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+10, 54-44, per Pew Research. They had Biden+2 in April. https://t.co/OrhSppiUuw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I certainly don't think there's anything surprising about a poll showing an even race in TX-06 right now. D+10 in IN-05 is more of a stretch, but I'm not sure it's much crazier than Biden+14 nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

...Biden double-digit leads aren't outliers anymore. We're in uncharted territory and I think we should be pretty open-minded about what it would mean downballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We've got three Dem polls this morning, all generally apocalyptic for the GOP Even in TX-06 (and GOP+4 in the House race) Biden+10 in IN-05 (and D+6 in the House) Biden+2 in MO A heavy grain of salt is in order for partisan polls. And the MO result is too far for me, but... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: So far we've tracked TV ad spending from the Trump campaign for the fall in AZ, FL, OH and WI. For 9/8-11/3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump's disapproval rating is at 55.6 among RV/LV polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. It's the highest in 2.5 years https://t.co/85ZK8iNafA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I haven't seen many news reports indicating that Duckworth is in the very top top tier of consideration, but it does seem to me that she's emerging as the next choice of the pundit class (who knows about team Biden) if the top-tier doesn't close the deal https://t.co/f699RrjuXS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: A result of weekend strategy sessions about his campaign’s direction seems to have been switching the nickname he had for Bi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview IDK more small states further dilutes the representation of CA etc. not sure the merits are so clear — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher And of course we could confound it again by noting that they were seeking a third or fifth! term in power. That’s probably part of it too, and with this limited sample we can’t untangle it all. But for me the downballot data shades my prior — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher And 2 of these 3 races do look a lot more like open races: weak party unity, volatile races, very close contests during an era of reelection blowouts, etc. doesn’t prove anything but, to me, it makes sense that they’d behave like that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher I’m not saying we should ignore them, but we know that there’s a difference between appointments and true incumbents downballot and I think a reasonable prior is that we’d find the same w presidential races if we had sufficient sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende definitely, though i think there's a certain bond that you forge with your supporters in a campaign, or even in the act of voting itself. i'd certainly say that was true for our last few presidents, including trump. i don't think time in office replaces all of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky OTOH we know downballot that appointments are more like open races than those with incumbents. I think it fits a reasonable prior and there’s a solid underlying explanation — PolitiTweet.org