Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 21, 2021

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Sat Jun 27 19:13:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende definitely, though i think there's a certain bond that you forge with your supporters in a campaign, or even in the act of voting itself. i'd certainly say that was true for our last few presidents, including trump. i don't think time in office replaces all of it — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky OTOH we know downballot that appointments are more like open races than those with incumbents. I think it fits a reasonable prior and there’s a solid underlying explanation — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher I’m not saying we should ignore them, but we know that there’s a difference between appointments and true incumbents downballot and I think a reasonable prior is that we’d find the same w presidential races if we had sufficient sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated