Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 21, 2021

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Sat Jun 27 19:35:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher And 2 of these 3 races do look a lot more like open races: weak party unity, volatile races, very close contests during an era of reelection blowouts, etc. doesn’t prove anything but, to me, it makes sense that they’d behave like that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher I’m not saying we should ignore them, but we know that there’s a difference between appointments and true incumbents downballot and I think a reasonable prior is that we’d find the same w presidential races if we had sufficient sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DKarol @billscher And of course we could confound it again by noting that they were seeking a third or fifth! term in power. That’s probably part of it too, and with this limited sample we can’t untangle it all. But for me the downballot data shades my prior — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated